Phillies vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Philly's Bats Power It Against Mad Max

Max Scherzer remains an absolute master, but he can give up the long bomb to power hitters. Luckily for tonight's MLB betting underdogs, the Phillies aren't short on just that — and it has our picks breaking down their value vs. the Mets.

Last Updated: Aug 12, 2022 2:47 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets start a three-game series Friday night.

Suddenly, the Phillies are red-hot and have won eight of their last ten. They've remained steady in the Top 10 of our MLB Power Rankings, and you're starting to see some of those reasons now. 

Unfortunately, the Phillies’ opponent is seemingly just as hot as them. The Mets dominated Atlanta in a lengthy five-game series and come in today off a three-game sweep of the Reds.

Who will get the opening win of the series? Find out in our Phillies vs. Mets MLB picks and predictions for Friday, August 12, 2022.

Phillies vs Mets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Today's odds opened with the Mets as -160 favorites. Since then, they've taken some massive money and have dropped to -210 across the board. Likewise, you can find the Phillies returning anywhere from +180 to +190, depending on your book's hold. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Phillies vs Mets predictions

Picks made on 8/12/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Phillies vs Mets game info

Location: Citi Field, Flushings, NY
Date: Friday, August 12, 2022
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV+

Phillies vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Ranger Suarez (8-5, 3.68 ERA): Suarez grades out better in a few metrics than his opponent on the mound today. He has an elite hard-hit rate along with an elite exit velocity rate. However, Suarez doesn't create enough swings and misses. His whiff rate, K rate, and chase rate are much desired. The strength of his game is around creating ground balls, with a 57% rate well above league average.

Max Scherzer (8-2, 1.98 ERA): August has been virtually spotless for Scherzer, with a 1.32 ERA and seven shutout innings against the Braves. If you're going to get Scherzer, you have one window. Find your best barrel hitters, have them barrel up the ball, and hope they can hit it out of the park. His barrel rate is 9.6, and that's easily the highest it's been in his career.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets

Phillies vs Mets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

It has taken me quite a while to get on board the Mets train, primarily due to their offense. They have gotten fortunate throughout the season and consistently hit the ball in the right spot. 

You'd think something like that would regress, and it probably will, as their projected win expectancy says they are due for at least a small cold spell before the seasons' end. 

That said, you can't argue their complement of elite hitters with an even more elite rotation of pitchers. I say all that to say, I can't pass up this price on the Phillies today. 

For starters, my projections have this priced around +170. So, this isn't a wager that's going to hit 50% of the time or even one that's expected to hit 45% of the time. However, I see a considerable edge on a price itching closer to over +200. 

Remember, we're looking at the value, not necessarily the bet that will cash the most.

Let's look at the matchup and put it in the simplest terms to maybe shed some light on why we give the Phillies more chances than oddsmakers. 

The strength of Suarez's game is creating ground balls. He does it at the third-highest clip among starting pitchers. The Mets play right into that, with the seventh-highest ground ball rate and the eighth-highest weak contact rate. 

It's never fun betting against a future Hall of Famer on the mound, but it's also not fun betting lines of -200. As we previously mentioned, the only shot you'll have against Mad Max is if you can barrel up the ball and, even better, hit those out of the park. The Phillies, with the sixth-highest barrel rate, can do that. 

Scherzer has elevated his game for big-time matchups against the Yankees and Braves. At some point, he will have at least a reasonably human start as he did against the Nationals when he gave up three earned runs. 

There is plenty of reason to suggest that could happen today, and because of that, I can't pass up the value.

Prediction: Phillies moneyline (+198 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

I see no value in this overall total. My projections have this going Over/Under and an exact 50/50 split, so I'm getting creative, laying some juice, and backing the Phillies to score in the first five innings.

It just takes one run to cash this, and my projections are giving us a 5% edge vs. the current number. This bet is taking the barrel discussion we talked about with Scherzer and applying it. 

Scherzer will likely see three batters that rank in the elite end of baseball two times in the first five innings: Kyle Schwarber, Darick Hall, and Rhys Hoskins

That happens to feature two batters that have been extremely hot in Hall and Hoskins. Hoskins has homered in four of his last seven games, and Hall has accomplished a similar feat. So, we're betting them to assist us in getting this home. 

This isn't a fun lay, but the matchup is right, and the number is correct. This is the best in a market that doesn't seem to have much value tonight.

Prediction: Phillies to score in the first five innings (-170 at DraftKings)

Best bet

One of my favorite angles, when a marquee pitcher is on the mound, is looking at the other pitcher and backing his outs prop. Typically, you'll have some success with this, even with average pitchers. They raise their games in these moments, and subsequently, you get value. So, I'm taking that angle tonight.

Suarez has to be eager to make amends on his previous start vs. the Mets. He lasted only two innings, and even though it came at the beginning of the year, it was one of his worst starts of the season. He has the matchup here to go the distance, and his team will be looking for him to do so. 

We're backing both a motivational aspect and matchup angle here.

Ranger Suarez Pick: To record Over 16.5 outs (-130)

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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