After a small MLB betting slate yesterday, we've got a packed schedule on Friday with 14 games on the board. That means thousands of MLB player props to dig into as we search for the best betting value.
Today we're fading one struggling slugger while backing another to break out. Plus, I'm putting our money on one of the best pitchers in the National League as he faces off against a pathetic Pirates lineup.
Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Friday, August 12.
MLB props for August 12
Picks made on 8/12/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Jose vs Jose
Guardians' third baseman Jose Ramirez might be fresh off his fourth All-Star selection, but he's currently in the midst of a slump. Ramirez is slashing just .205/.244/.256 in 10 games this month and has hit just five dingers in his last 53 games.
Today, Ramirez and the Guardians begin a three-game series in Toronto. The Jays are sending Jose Berrios to the mound, and while the righthander has a 5.19 ERA on the year, he has a far more impressive 3.23 ERA in 11 starts at home.
Ramirez is no stranger to Berrios after frequently clashing when Berrios played with the Twins for six years. In 42 career at-bats against Berrios, he has a .190 batting average with a .310 slugging percentage.
Ramirez has also historically struggled at Rogers Centre, boasting a slugging percentage of just .374 in 20 games (87 plate appearances) north of the border. Fade the struggling Ramirez on his total bases.
While I might be fading Ramirez, I'm backing another struggling slugger to break out of his slump. That would be Houston's Yordan Alvarez, who hit a solo home run in his last contest but is slashing just .156/.243/.281 this month.
Alvarez is still second in the majors with a slugging percentage of .633 while ranking first in hard-hit rate (62.3%), average exit velocity (95.9 MPH), and xwOBA (.465).
The Astros are hosting the A's tonight, and Oakland will be giving the pill to Adam Oller. The 27-year-old rookie has been awful, pitching to a 7.63 ERA with a 1.79 WHIP in 43 2-3 innings. Oller might be better suited to come out of the bullpen, as opposing batters have slugged a whopping .669 against him in eight games as a starter.
Left-handed hitters like Alvarez have also lighted him up, and the Astros' star boasts a .677 slugging percentage against righties. Expect Alvarez to return to his mashing ways tonight and take the Over 1.5 on his total bases.
Rolling with Rodon
The final game on the MLB board tonight is a 10:15 p.m. ET clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants. The Buccos are one of the worst teams in the majors and rank second-last in run differential.
While the Pirates have gotten some pathetic pitching, they've also been awful at the dish, ranking 28th in the majors with an OPS of .650. That number has plummeted to .597 since the All-Star break, which is bad news for them on the road against Giants starter Carlos Rodon.
The former top prospect has finally put it all together, making the All-Star game in each of the past two seasons. Rodon has a 2.95 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP in 22 starts this year and has been even better at Oracle Park, where he boasts a 1.76 ERA across nine starts.
Rodon has allowed fewer than two runs in eight of his last 11 starts, including an outing against the Pirates on June 17 when he scattered just two hits over eight scoreless innings. Take the Under 1.5 on Rodon's earned runs total today.
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