Jacob deGrom has begun the 2021 season doing Jacob deGrom things. He has given up just one run in two starts. He has racked up 21 strikeouts. Oh, and the New York Mets lost both games.
Just another day in the life of deGrom. But he’ll put his team in a position to win another baseball game when he is on the bump for a matinee matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. But can bettors trust his teammates to do their part at a steep price?
Check out our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Mets on Thursday, April 15, with the first pitch scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET.
Phillies vs Mets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonWith Jacob deGrom taking the ball, New York opened a -250 favorite Wednesday night at DraftKings and initially stretched to -265, but the moneyline twice receded to -235. As of 11:15 a.m. ET, the Mets are -240, with 61 percent of tickets on the Mets, but money split 50/50. The total opened at 7.5 (Under -121) and is down to 7 (Under -113), with 70 percent of tickets on the Under and 55 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePhillies vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jacob deGrom (0-1, 0.64 ERA): Let’s just get this out of the way. deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball. Full stop. He has added velocity to his fastball and now regularly touches 100 on the radar gun. But the right-hander does more than just throw gas. He’s a pitcher in a true sense of the word as he is a master of changing speeds and location with deadly accuracy. Good luck to those hitting against him because it looks like a total nightmare.
Zach Eflin (0-0, 3.46 ERA): Eflin will be overshadowed by deGrom in this matchup and that’s too bad because the Phillies’ starter has carried his solid performance in 2020 over to this season. The right-hander has allowed five runs on 11 hits over 13 innings overwork in his first two starts this season (both against the Braves). Eflin uses mostly his sinker and slider to get outs but mixes in a curve, a four-seamer, and a change for good measure.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Archie Bradley RP (Out).
Mets: J.D. Davis 3B (Out), Dellin Betances RP (Out), Drew Smith RP (Out), Seth Lugo RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mets are 0-4 in Jacob deGrom's last four starts dating back to last season. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.
Moneyline pick
What else can be said about deGrom that hasn’t been said already? The guy is a stud. But the question is whether you can back him at such a steep price considering he still doesn’t get the required support from the rest of the Mets.
And it’s funny because this year was supposed to be different, and it still might be. But early on, it’s deja vu for deGrom. Pitching gems and losing ball games.
It starts with an offense that ranks 28th in runs per game, plating less than four per contest, and lacking pop, ranking dead last in the majors when it comes to home runs. And second, the bullpen is back to its late-game-collapsing ways, ranking 21st in ERA and second to last in opponent batting average.
On the other side, Eflin has been solid for the Phillies and should do enough to keep his team in the game, and while Philly is also struggling on offense, that lineup is still deep and talented. So, when deGrom does hand the ball over to the bullpen, the Phillies could take advantage.
It goes against everything in my being to bet against deGrom. I am 99.9 percent sure he pitches another gem. But his team continues to let him down. And this price is way too high to back the Mets. So, it looks like we’re on the Phillies.
PREDICTION: Phillies (+180)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to the total, it should be no surprise at this point to see a number this low in a deGrom start. He’s only seen one total above 7.5 in his last 14 starts. And, perhaps as a surprise, the Over is 9-4-1 in those games.
Now, most of those Overs came from last season when the Mets were hitting. This year, they're scoring just 3.70 runs per game. And deGrom just shut out the Phillies on three hits over six innings on April 5.
We mentioned Eflin has been solid, but it’s the turnaround of the Phillies bullpen that has been a real surprise. After a year where they had the MLB’s worst pen, they now rank 12th in ERA and allow opponents to hit just .209.
Mix in the fact the Phillies offense has also started the season in a bit of a slump, also scoring less than four runs per game, and we're looking at the Under even with a number this low.
PREDICTION: Under 7.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Mets betting card
- Phillies (+180)
- Under 7.5 (-110)
Picks made 04/14/2021 at 9:55 p.m. ET.
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