The Chicago White Sox have taken two of the first three games against AL Central rival Cleveland and will look to make it three out of four in an interesting MLB betting matinee.
Veteran Lance Lynn, who has looked strong through two 2021 starts, will get a chance to mow through an anemic Cleveland lineup, while the Tribe counter with a starter whose base numbers look good but advanced analytics suggest might be a tad bit lucky.
We break it all down and give our thoughts on how this game plays out in our free Indians vs. White picks and predictions for Thursday, April 15, with first pitch set for 2:10 p.m. ET.
Indians vs White Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe line opened at Chicago -135, with the total at 8. Early action favored the home Sox, moving the line to -149, while Under money has bet the total down to 7.5. Check back later for a full report from Patrick!
Check out the full line movement for this gameIndians vs White Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Aaron Civale (2-0, 2.45 ERA): Another of the endless promising young arms that the Tribe develops, Civale had a 2.34 ERA in 10 starts in his rookie season (2019) but slipped to a 4.74 ERA last year. His numbers look like he's back to his rookie form through two outings in 2021, as he's giving up just 5 hits through 14 2-3 innings so far, but those hits have been costly—three of them have been long balls.
Lance Lynn (1-0, 0.00 ERA): After consecutive strong seasons in Texas (which saw him finish fifth and sixth in Cy Young voting), Lynn was brought in to Chicago to add a veteran presence to a young rotation. He's been as good as expected through two starts, having yet to give up an earned run through 13 2-3 innings across two starts, including a 5-hit, 11-strikeout complete-game shutout of Kansas City his last time out.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Indians: None to report.
White Sox: Tim Anderson SS (probable), Eloy Jimenez OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The White Sox are 17-5 in their last 22 games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Indians vs. White Sox.
Runline pick
Nobody expected Cleveland to lead the league in offense, especially after shipping out Francisco Lindor in the offseason, but it's generally been a rough go for the Tribe's bats in the early goings this season.
Cleveland sits 25th in the Majors (and dead last in the American League) at just 3.82 runs per game and is 29th in the league with a .195 team batting average. The Tribe have scored four runs or fewer in eight of 11 games so far — including a whopping five runs through three games against the White Sox — and if you remove two outlier games, where they plated nine and 11 runs, Cleveland is averaging 2.4 runs/game.
Obviously, you need to count those high-scoring contests, and nobody will do so more than Civale, who was the starter for both of those Cleveland outings. His peripheral numbers look strong, but his advanced stats suggest some extreme luck.
His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is currently 4.78, much higher than either of his two previous seasons, as his fly-ball rate is elevated and his BAbip is just 0.67—well above the MLB average of .296 (and his career average of .281) and a huge red flag that the regression monster is coming for the Cleveland righty.
It's easy to pitch when you're relaxed and have a big lead, and we don't see the Tribe putting up another crooked number against Lynn. Chicago's starters haven't given up a run over the last two contests, as Lucas Giolito gave up three hits over seven shutout innings on Tuesday and Carlos Rodon threw an almost-perfect game yesterday (he lost it in the ninth on an HBP but still got the no-hitter), and Lynn's early-season form suggests he should keep Cleveland's struggling bats at bay.
Also unlike Cleveland, Chicago can actually score runs, sitting fifth in the Big Leagues at 5.25 per contest, scoring fewer than three runs just once in 12 games (Tuesday against Shane Bieber) and putting a snowman up on the board yesterday.
With the significantly better offense and a better pitcher on the mound, we like the Sox today. With the ML juiced at about -150, we're going to expect Cleveland's lack of offense to let the ChiSox win by a couple of runs—so take them on the -1.5 runline.
PREDICTION: White Sox -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under pick
With generally strong pitching and pathetic hitting, Cleveland has been one of the best Under bets in baseball so far this year at 3-8 O/U.
As mentioned above, Civale's numbers look good, but he's giving up a lot of fly balls, he's extremely lucky right now with almost everything hitters are connecting with resulting in outs and three of the five hits he did allow were homers. His previous two outings also came against Kansas City and Detroit—clubs that do not have the same offensive depth as Chicago.
The White Sox are in the top half of the MLB in strikeouts, third in walks and fifth in on-base percentage: They work the count and put the ball in play. And with slugging threats in Jose Abreu, the out-of-nowhere masher Yermin Mercedes, and the expected return of Tim Anderson, the ChiSox aren't going to see all their batted balls turn into outs.
The first two games of the series went Under while yesterday actually sneaked Over the 7.5 total—with Chicago doing all the legwork. We don't expect the Tribe to score many runs again today, so the question is do we think Chicago can push this one Over the total against Civale?
Yes, yes we do.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-110)
Indians vs White Sox betting card
- White Sox -1.5 (+145)
- Over 7.5 (-110)
Picks made on 4/15/2021 at 10:01 a.m. ET
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