Philadelphia has turned a corner of late, winning three straight games and four of the last five.
With Zack Wheeler set to take the mound, my Phillies vs. Marlins predictions expect the road team to extend its winning streak in Miami.
Let’s take a closer look at my MLB picks for May 1.
Who will win Phillies vs Marlins today: Phillies moneyline (-120)
Zack Wheeler showed little rust in his season debut, holding a top-tier Atlanta Braves offense to two runs over five innings while striking out six. The velocity was high, indicating he’s already close to 100%.
If Wheeler is on his game, he doesn’t need much support to grind out wins – and he should get it against the Miami Marlins.
Eury Perez has allowed at least three runs in four of six starts and ranks Bottom-5 on the slate at limiting fly balls and hard contact. That’s cause for concern against a powerful Philadelphia Phillies offense that sits sixth in hard hit rate.
COVERS INTEL: Eury Perez has allowed an alarming 14.9% barrel rate, putting him in the seventh percentile league-wide.
Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under pick: Over 8.0 (+100)
The Phillies are heating up at the dish. They have scored 36 runs over their past seven, good for an average of 5.14 per game.
Their hard hit numbers against righties are strong and Perez is giving up a lot of quality contact. This is a good setup for them to build on strong recent production.
Miami should struggle early against Wheeler, but they’re unlikely to run him into the ground in just his second start. With a taxed Phillies bullpen behind him after Thursday’s double-header, there’s a clear path to late offense.
- ML/RL bets: 8-3, +4.18 units
- Over/Under bets: 4-7, -3.72 units
Phillies vs Marlins opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia (-130) | Miami (+110)
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+135) | Miami +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-105) | Under 8.0 (-1.5)
Phillies vs Marlins trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.90 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.
How to watch Phillies vs Marlins and game info
| Location | LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date | Friday, May 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSP, Marlins.TV |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zach Wheeler (0-0, 3.60 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher | Eury Perez (2-2, 4.60 ERA) |
Phillies vs Marlins latest injuries
Phillies vs Marlins weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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