MLB's marquee series of the week continues as the Philadelphia Phillies face the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.
Monday’s Game 1 was taken by L.A. 5-3, giving Philadelphia its seventh loss in its last eight games and my Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions are going back to the home team's well.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks for Tuesday, August 6.
Phillies vs Dodgers prediction
My best bet
Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
This meeting brings an intriguing pitching matchup between Cristopher Sanchez of the Philadelphia Phillies and Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers. While the latter has been among the league’s top arms for what seems like forever, the former is a young southpaw whose ERA is below 3.50 for the second straight year.
A few things stand out about the younger lefty’s profile. First, right-handed batters tend to have more success against him (.269 BA and 23 extra-base hits allowed) than left-handed ones (.247 BA and two extra-base hits allowed). Secondly, he’s far more effective in the confines of his home ballpark (.232 BA and 2.32 ERA) than on the road (.315 BA and 5.23 ERA).
The Dodgers typically hit lefties very well, leading the league with a 122 wRC+ on the season. That being said, they’ve hit a rough patch and rank just 20th in both wRC+ (96) and wOBA (.303) over the previous month.
One lineup staple who has remained effective southpaws is 2024 Home Run Derby champ Teoscar Hernandez, who recorded a dinger a day ago to help lead his team to victory.
He’s hitting .294 with a 166 wRC+ and .404 wOBA against LHP, and those numbers bump up to .298, 181, and .426 when we isolate for home games — he’s been a very tough out at Dodger Stadium, especially against LHP.
Derby curse or not, Teoscar has just been heating up. He posted his highest wRC+ (143) of the season in July and has upped that to 290 over a small sample in August, recording an extra-base hit in all four contests.
Hernandez’s total bases prop of 1.5 offers plus money on the Over. He’s cashed that in four straight games and is averaging 2.2 total bases in his last 10. Considering his and Sanchez’s splits, this qualifies as a favorable matchup.
The weather is the final determining factor. It’ll be a warm evening with a temperature of 82 degrees at first pitch and the wind will be blowing out to center field at nine mph. That favors offense, and I’ll bet on Hernandez being a part of that
Phillies vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 total bases
Will Smith Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Over 8.5
Will Smith is another Dodger who has owned lefty pitching, hitting .295 with a 164 wRC+ and .401 wOBA against them, which sets up well for this game considering Sanchez’s splits.
I’m taking the Over with the weather favoring offense. Understandably, Kershaw has been shaky in his return from the IL, most recently allowing seven runs (three earned) on six hits while failing to record a strikeout over 3 2/3 IP against the San Diego Padres.
This is a difficult spot for the veteran to get back on track. Philadelphia’s lineup may be struggling mightily against RHP, but no one has been better against LHP — the Phillies lead the league with a 177 wRC+ and .426 wOBA against lefties since the break.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Dodgers odds
Phillies vs Dodgers live odds
Phillies vs Dodgers opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-200) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -105 | Los Angeles -115
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Phillies vs Dodgers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia is currently rising the struggle bus, going 1-7 in its last eight and 4-11 since the break.
- L.A. has been tough to beat at home (34-20), covering the run line in seven of its last 11 at Dodger Stadium.
- These teams have trended strongly toward the Over when playing one another, going 8-0 O/U in their last eight games at Dodger Stadium.
Phillies vs Dodgers trend
Teoscar Hernandez has recorded 2 or more total bases in four straight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Dodgers.
Phillies vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSP, SNLA |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (7-7, 3.36 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Clayton Kershaw (0-1, 5.87 ERA) |
Phillies vs Dodgers latest injuries
Phillies vs Dodgers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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