The last thing a team on a double-digit slide wants to see is one of the game's best pitchers, but that's what the Chicago Cubs are staring down when they host the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field on Wednesday.
Chicago, losers of 11 straight, will be up against Zack Wheeler, who has been dominating this season and is the MLB leader in strikeouts.
Can the Cubbies pull off an upset? Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Cubs on July 7.
Phillies vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Wednesday, July 7, 2021
• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSP, Marquee Sports Network
Phillies vs Cubs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPhiladelphia opened -140 Tuesday night at PointsBet USA, fell to -135, then rose to -145, where the moneyline sits at 4:30 p.m. ET. Ticket count and money are both running 2/1 on the Phillies. The total is steady at 7.5, with 63 percent of bets on the Over and 58 percent of cash on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePhillies vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler (6-4, 2.05 ERA): Wheeler has been sensational in his second season with the Phillies, posting career-best marks in ERA, WHIP (0.94), and strikeout rate. He has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last 11 starts and is coming off back-to-back dominant outings. Wheeler threw seven scoreless frames against the Mets on June 27 and followed it up with another 7 2-3 innings of scoreless ball against the Padres in his last start, while striking out nine and issuing no walks.
Alec Mills (3-2, 4.85 ERA): Mills was a tough-luck loser in his last start, throwing a season-high 5 2-3 innings of two-run ball with nine strikeouts against the Reds. It was his fourth start since joining the Cubs' rotation (he made one start earlier in the year when he was working out of the bullpen) and his third straight of allowing two runs or fewer.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Odubel Herrera OF (Questionable), Sam Coonrod RP (Out).
Cubs: Ryan Tepera RP (Out), Eric Sogard 2B (Out), David Bote 3B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cubs.
Moneyline pick
Chicago has unraveled in a hurry, as its season-worst slide has dropped it to fourth in the NL Central and two games below .500.
While a number of recent losses have been close and well-pitched games – with the Cubs losing four of five by one run heading into this series – they've been lit up by Philadelphia.
The Phillies have scored 28 runs across the first two contests of this four-game set, winning the series opener 13-3 before a 15-10 thumping last night. Are there signs that point to a turnaround tonight? Not really, with Wheeler on the mound.
The flamethrower has been as good as any non-Jacob deGrom pitcher this season, ranking second in FanGraphs' WAR and sixth in strikeout-to-walk rate, while littering the Top 10 in a number of other key pitching categories.
Wheeler has a lot of weapons in his arsenal and he's had that on full display, pitching to a 1.44 ERA across five June starts before dominating the Padres last week in what was one of his best outings of the season. And there's no reason to believe he won't continue shining tonight against a Cubs team that has scored the fewest runs in baseball over the last month, while ranking third from the bottom in OPS with a mark of .651.
There's surprisingly decent value on the road-favored Phillies at -130, though that could certainly jump as we inch closer to first pitch. But with Wheeler getting a juicy matchup against this sinking ship, we're going for a plus-money play and taking the Phillies on the runline.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under pick
The starting pitching matchup trends point to the Under being the play tonight, as the Over has failed to cash in any of Wheeler or Mills' last six starts.
The opening total of 7.5 was rightly set low, with Wheeler being one of the top run-suppressing arms in the game and the Cubs' offense struggling to do much of anything lately (though they did hang 10 on the Phillies last night in a game started by Aaron Nola). None of Wheeler's last six starts have eclipsed that total, likewise with Mills' last four outings. But the reality is that none of that stuff guarantees us anything for tonight.
Chicago has had to use a number of arms, including a position player, to get through the first two games of this series and Mills isn't likely to give them much length in this spot. He was pitching out of the 'pen to start the season and has gone more than five innings in just one of his five starts. While the Cubs' bullpen has been great this season, sporting the second-best ERA in the majors, they are 20th over the last month and fatigue could be an issue in this spot.
Philadelphia's bullpen has been even worse over the last 30 days and significantly worse over the season. Mills doesn't have the putaway stuff to dominate like Wheeler, so he is certainly susceptible to a blowup on any given start, but even if those two do a good job keeping runs off the board, we expect some to start trickling in late.
The Phillies have bashed everything the Cubs have thrown their way this series and we're not about to fade them too much after their 25 hits led to 28 runs across the last two games.
PREDICTION: Over 7 (-116)
Phillies vs Cubs betting card
- Philadelphia -1.5 (+125)
- Over 7 (-116)
Picks made on 7/7/2021 at 11:10 a.m. ET
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