The Juan Soto vs Fernando Tatis Jr. Show continues tonight as the San Diego Padres host the Washington Nationals at Petco Park. Both young superstars have already gone deep in this series as the teams have split the first games.
The Padres will be sizeable favorites in Game 3 as Chris Paddack toes the rubber against Patrick Corbin, but will either starter be able to keep these phenoms in check? Find out in our MLB free picks and predictions for Nationals vs. Padres on Wednesday, July 7.
Nationals vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Wednesday, July 7, 2021
• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• TV: 1MLBN
Nationals vs Padres odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonAs of 7:45 p.m ET, San Diego is a -178 favorite at FanDuel, down a few cents from this morning's -184 opener. Still, the Padres are attracting 78 percent of moneyline bets and 84 percent of moneyline cash. The total opened at 8.5 (Under -112) and briefly went to 8 (Over -118) this morning, then went back to the opener all day, with the Over taking 83 percent of bets/87 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameNationals vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Patrick Corbin (5-7, 5.56 ERA): Despite some meh overall numbers, Corbin had been pitching better the last couple of months. But July got off to a rough start as the lefty surrendered six runs on eight hits in 4 2-3 innings of work last time out against the Dodgers. It was the first time since April 15 that he allowed more than four runs in a start.
Chris Paddack (4-5, 4.07 ERA): Paddack can be an infuriating pitcher to back at times. Sometimes he flashes ace potential and others he looks nothing more than a backend of the rotation kind of guy. His last six starts are a perfect epitome of this, where has a 5.87 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP but has three quality starts over that stretch.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Nationals: Kyle Schwarber LF (Out), Daniel Hudson RP (Out), Tanner Rainey RP (Out).
Padres: Emilio Pagan RP (Questionable), Austin Nola C (Out), Javy Guerra RP (Out), Taylor Williams RP (Out), Matt Strahm RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Nationals' last four games as a road underdog and 5-0 in Chris Paddack's last five games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Padres.
Moneyline pick
The Nationals struck first in this series taking Game 1 by a score of 7-5 but the Padres responded by winning last night’s matchup 7-4. So, where is the betting value in Game 3? Well, let’s start with the starters (duh).
As mentioned, Corbin has actually been pitching better than his 5.56 ERA suggests. Before his last start against the Dodgers, the lefty had pitched to a respectable 4.01 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP over a 13-game stretch.
Now, Corbin faces a Padres lineup that has had its issues against southpaws. San Diego ranks 22nd in batting average and 20th in OPS when it comes to hitting off lefties this season.
Countering Corbin is Paddack and despite the better ERA, you can make the argument that the Padres right-hander has been the more inconsistent of the two starters lately. For instance, he can go out and dominate the Reds for five innings and follow that up by getting torched by the Diamondbacks.
But one thing that has been consistent about Paddack is that he has been finding too much of the plate with his four-seamer. He throws it over 60 percent of the time and opponents are hitting .283 off it.
That doesn’t bode well against a Nationals team that ranks second in the MLB in expected batting average. With the pitching matchup being much closer than this line indicates, the value is with the underdog in this one.
PREDICTION: Nationals (+155)
Over/Under pick
The first two games of this series have been exciting to watch, seeing 12 and 11 runs scored respectively. So, even if these NL teams don’t get to that 11.5 average, getting a total of 8.5 for today’s game feels like a steal.
We talked about how both starters have been inconsistent and are likely to give up a handful of runs each, particularly considering that both lineups are averaging over five runs per game over the last 10 games.
Then when you add two bullpens that rank 16th (San Diego) and 25th (Washington) in ERA over the last 15 days there’s good reason to think the scoring will continue in this series.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-110)
Nationals vs Padres betting card
- Nationals (+155)
- Over 8.5 (-110)
Picks made on 7/7/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET
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