The second installment of this three-game series gets underway on Saturday evening with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Philadelphia Phillies.
Milwaukee won Friday’s matchup after a dramatic eighth inning where it cleared the bases on an infield error by Alec Bohm.
Will the Brewers take care of business once again, or can the Phillies enact their revenge? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Brewers on Saturday, September 2.
Phillies vs Brewers odds
Phillies vs Brewers predictions
Right-hander Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he should be a good candidate to bet on tonight. Through 27 starts this season, Nola is 12-8 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is looming for the right-hander over the final stretch of the season, given his 3.82 xERA, .238 xBA, and 37.4 Hard-Hit%. This expected positive regression has started to come to fruition recently for Nola, who is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over his past two starts.
Nola is also a strikeout artist, ranking in the 66th percentile in K% and 94th percentile In Chase%. Currently, you can find his strikeout prop as low as 5.5 at FanDuel, a number he has surpassed in nine of his past 10 starts. This strikeout success is likely to continue against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team Nola has dominated throughout his career as he boasts a 6-1 record with a 2.30 ERA through 11 career starts against them. The right-hander also recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of those 11 outings.
While the Brewers currently sit in first place in the NL Central, their hitting has held them back this season as they rank in the bottom third of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS, and home runs. They also struggle to avoid strikeouts, ranking 19th in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Through 140 career plate appearances against Nola, this current Milwaukee lineup possesses a fade-worthy 27.9 K% and 26.6 Whiff%. I would not play Nola’s strikeout prop at 6.5, but I would consider laying more juice on Nola’s strikeout prop to go Over 5.5.
My best bet: Aaron Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts (-142)
Phillies vs Brewers same-game parlay
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts (-142)
Phillies moneyline (-146)
Under 9 (-108)
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, so now let’s look at the other two.
Right-hander Colin Rea takes the mound for the Brewers and could be a good fade candidate. Through 20 appearances on the mound this year, Rea is 5-5 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, ranking in the 38th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and Hard-Hit%. With Philadelphia’s strong performance at the dish recently, scoring runs should not be an issue.
With that said, the Phillies should also be able to limit Milwaukee’s damage given how well Nola projects in this matchup. It would not be surprising if we saw something along the lines of a 5-3 or 6-2 Phillies win on Friday evening.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Phillies vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Phillies opened as a –130 favorite and have since been bet up to their current price of –146. The line opened so short due to Milwaukee’s tremendous ability to generate wins over the past month, but this line movement makes sense given that Philadelphia boasts the better pitcher and lineup.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 9.0 and has remained at that number. There will likely be some give-and-take with this number all the way to first pitch as Philadelphia’s strong lineup against Rea will catch the eye of Over bettors, while Milwaukee’s below-average lineup against Nola will do the opposite.
Best MLB bonuses
All Users
Profit boost (up to 100%) on one SGP daily! Bet Now
New Users
Bet $50 and get $250 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his past 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Brewers
Kentucky: Sports betting is coming!
Kentucky sports betting will launch on September 28 — but you can pre-register now!
Check out the best Kentucky sports betting apps, as well as the best Kentucky sportsbook promos!
21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Phillies vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, September 2, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Aaron Nola (12-8, 4.30 ERA): Positive regression looms for Nola based on his underlying metrics, and that is something we have already seen start to develop over his past two starts. He is coming off a brilliant performance against St. Louis, a game in which the right-hander tossed seven shutout innings while allowing just one hit and recording nine strikeouts.
Colin Rea (5-5, 5.11 ERA): There is not much to love about Rea’s performance on the mound, as he is the one weak link in an otherwise dominant Milwaukee rotation. Rea's surface-level stats leave much to be desired and his underlying metrics are even worse. Not only that, but he will certainly have his hands full on Saturday against this strong Philly lineup.
Latest injuries
Weather
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
