The National League MVP odds race is shaping up for a thrilling finish, as Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as a legitimate contender to dethrone Shohei Ohtani, who has won three straight MVPs (one in the AL, two in the NL) since 2023.
The current odds at Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps, have PCA and Ohtani as a virtual coin flip, with both players listed at 50% probability. However, the Chicago Cubs outfielder has a slightly higher cost at 51.7 cents.
If the season ended today, I'd pick PCA, but it's admittedly a narrow margin. This is especially the case after both players brought their best selves to the ballpark on Monday night.
- Key takeaways:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong is a five-tool player, boasting top-tier offensive numbers and elite defense in center field
- While Shohei Ohtani's season is impressive, his knee injury — which prevents him from pitching — and slightly worse offensive numbers hurt his case.
- Monday's results show off a real neck-and-neck race for NL MVP.
Odds to win 2026 NL MVP
Odds last updated on 8-18. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $50 trading bonus when you deposit at least $20 as a new user.
The NL MVP odds have fluctuated over the last several weeks. Shohei Ohtani has been favored across the board, but Pete Crow-Armstrong has gradually gained ground.
At the end of July, Ohtani was -156 to win NL MVP, and PCA was +186. That has flipped, and the pair are almost equal to earn the honors.
PCA leads MLB with 2.2 WAR since the All-Star Game, while Ohtani hasn't pitched in nearly two months, limiting his edge.
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PCA vs Ohtani: A statistical breakdown
| Stat |  Pete Crow-Armstrong |
 Shohei Ohtani |
|---|---|---|
| Home runs | 30 | 29 |
| RBI | 78 | 78 |
| Runs scored | 89 | 81 |
| AVG | .281 | .295 |
| OPS | .929 | .948 |
| SB | 31 | 7 |
| ERA | N/A | 1.79 |
| Pitcher strikeouts | N/A | 95 |
| Defensive runs saved | 14 | 1 |
| Outs above average | 23 | N/A |
| FanGraphs WAR | 8.2 | 7 |
The case for Pete Crow-Armstrong
Remember when the Chicago Cubs traded half a season of Javier Baez for outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong? New York Mets fans do.
This is the worst-case scenario for trading a top prospect. While PCA's ceiling was always through the roof, you never really know what you're going to get from a 20-year-old who was drafted out of high school, especially during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.
After barely playing in the Mets' organization, PCA immediately flourished for the Cubs, eventually reaching the majors to wrap up the 2023 season. His results were poor, but the future remained bright. He was fine in 2024, showcasing elite speed and defense while scuffling at the plate. He then had a red-hot first half of 2025 before cratering in the summer months.
The question became: will he adjust?
If you are into fantasy baseball, you know there was a lot of skepticism. His highs were bound to be high, a true five-tool talent offering speed and newfound power (he hit 31 home runs and stole 35 bases in 2025), but he also seemed to be a very streaky player.
Well, he seems to have adjusted. He's striking out more, yes, but he's also increased his walk rate by more than 7% year over year. He's aggressive but also selective. And while the .349 BABIP is very high, he's also extremely fast, able to beat out grounders that otherwise might send him back to the dugout.
He's built for the moment. After Shohei Ohtani clubbed two home runs in a game against the Colorado Rockies (at Coors Field, natch), PCA came through in the clutch at Wrigley Field against the crosstown White Sox on Monday night.
PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG
— MLB (@MLB) August 18, 2026
WALK-OFF HOME RUN FOR 30/30 🤯 pic.twitter.com/TSUSXmb8vi
Huge. He led off the game with his 29th homer and capped it off with a walk-off blast, sending the Wrigley faithful into hysterics.
Offensively, the tale of the tape remains very similar for the two superstars. But I ultimately give PCA the edge because of the defense.
He is the best defensive center fielder in MLB. Ohtani only plays the field when he pitches. When Ohtani won NL MVP as a designated hitter, becoming the first DH ever to win, he hit a career-high 54 home runs while slashing .310/.390/.646. He was undeniable.
Ohtani's offense is really good this year. It'd be disingenuous to say otherwise. But he's not overwhelmingly superior, which opens the door for PCA, who combines similar/equal offensive numbers with truly elite glovework.
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The case for Shohei Ohtani
For as good as PCA has been, it still feels somewhat contrarian to take him over Ohtani. That the Los Angeles Dodgers two-way phenom has pitched at all this season, and as effectively as he has, could be seen as enough. Crow-Armstrong is an elite fielder. Even if he's the best, there are several excellent defensive players throughout MLB.
No one other than Ohtani both pitches and hits at a high level of competency. Not now, and not really ever. Not like this.
Before a lingering knee injury pushed Ohtani back to full-time DH duties, he posted a 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings over 14 starts. He was even better over his first 10 starts, boasting a 0.74 ERA while allowing zero earned runs six times.
He was a legitimate Cy Young candidate.
Even with the diminished results in his other four starts, Ohtani finished six innings each time. Had he stayed on the mound, I don't think this debate would even happen, and that could be interpreted as an argument in his favor. His numbers are simply too good to allow a technicality to disqualify him.
Voting against Ohtani may be perceived as a result of voter fatigue, with baseball writers looking for any reason to go elsewhere for the NL's top honor, bored by "The Unicorn's" sustained excellence.
The final verdict
The NL MVP battle is heating up 🔥
— MLB (@MLB) August 18, 2026
-Pete Crow-Armstrong: 2 homers (walk-off HR), 4 hits
-Shohei Ohtani: 2 homers, 4 hits
Both earned Player of the Game honors!
(MLB x Primo Brands) pic.twitter.com/mdiBvTGUFR
Ultimately, I don't buy the "voter fatigue" argument. If Ohtani were hitting at the same level as his DH MVP campaign, then he'd be the clear front-runner. Likewise, if Ohtani were able to pitch at a high level for the entire season with his current offensive production, it's a no-brainer.
But neither of those things has come to fruition to this point.
Defense is historically underrated, and PCA wouldn't have a snowball's chance in Hell at winning if his bat wasn't doing a lot of the heavy lifting.
A lot can change in a month and a half, and if Crow-Armstrong runs into a streaky stretch like the one that torpedoed the second half of his 2025 season, Ohtani will win. If Ohtani can get back on the mound in late August or early September, that will also make threading the needle difficult for PCA.
But as last night showed, Pete Crow-Armstrong is game to match Ohtani swing for swing right now. And that, plus his otherworldly defense in arguably baseball's most important position, is enough for me to favor him here.
Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-107 at Polymarket)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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