The San Diego Padres are in line to win their sixth away series this season after leveling their three-game set with a 7-3 victory Wednesday night over the Cincinnati Reds.
My Padres vs. Reds prediction for this rubber-game matchup expects San Diego and starter Matt Waldron to keep the fire burning against an injury-riddled Cincinnati lineup and right-hander Frankie Montas when they meet on Thursday, May 23.
Read on for my full MLB picks.
Padres vs Reds prediction
My best bet
Padres moneyline (-108 at BetRivers)
My analysis
San Diego Padres knuckleballer Matt Waldron will make his ninth start of the season, and it's a big one. A Padres win today gives them a series victory over the Cincinnati Reds, and Waldron has a nice matchup in store.
Waldron has had his ups and downs this season. He’s been battered at Petco Park but has been more than adequate in the visitor's uniform. His home ERA of 6.75 dips to 3.60 when away from Petco and that will be good enough today against the light-hitting Reds.
Waldron will mix in a four-seamer, but the Cincy bats will mostly see a healthy diet of knuckleballs, and he has a good one. He boasts a 25% whiff rate on the pitch and meets a Reds offense that doesn’t plate many runs, with the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball against righties.
The Reds have multiple injuries that have affected their lineup, which means Frankie Montas will have to silence the powerful Padres offense, and I don’t believe he will today.
The 31-year-old righty has pitched well at home, but the teams he’s stymied (Angels, Nationals) don’t have anywhere near the lumber San Diego boasts. Montas has struggled at home against good offenses (Diamondbacks, Brewers) and issues nearly four walks per nine with a four-seamer surrendering an xwOBA of .361, and his splitter hasn’t been any better.
The Padres lineup is stacked but inconsistent. They boast the fourth-fewest strikeouts while scoring the fourth-most runs in baseball against right-handers. They busted out of a two-game scoreless slump with seven runs and have scored five or more in 11 of their 26 road games.
San Diego will get to Montas, Waldron will be efficient enough, and the Padres take the series.
Padres vs Reds same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Under 9.5
We’re looking at a potentially wet day in Cincinnati, which should bode well for the pitchers but not so much for hitting.
Cincinnati has a beaten-up lineup with multiple key injuries. As a result, they’ve scored only 14 runs across their past five at home.
The Padres boast a 12-13-0 record to the Under as the away team. They’ve been blanked twice across their past three and Montas has been good at home, allowing four earned runs across 17 1/3 frames on the Great American Ball Park bump.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Reds odds
Padres vs Reds live odds
Padres vs Reds opening odds
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+145)| Cincinnati +1.5 (-175)
- Moneyline: San Diego -110 | Cincinnati -110
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9/5 (-115)
Padres vs Reds spread and Over/Under analysis
- The markets' reaction to San Diego has raised the Padres' odds from -110 to -112.
- Cincinnati is now trading from -108 to -110.
- Over markets trade from +105 to -108 from opening (-115) with Under markets priced at -112 to -125 from an opening price of -105.
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Padres vs Reds trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 away games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Reds
Padres vs Reds game info
| Location: | Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, BSOH |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Matt Waldron (2-5, 5.00 ERA) |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Frankie Montas (2-3, 4.37 ERA) |
Padres vs Reds latest injuries
Padres vs Reds weather
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