A pair of teams with playoff aspirations square off at T-Mobile Park today where the Seattle Mariners host the San Diego Padres.
The total for this game is set at just 7.0 but my Padres vs. Mariners predictions don't expect the visitors to struggle at the plate, even against George Kirby.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this interleague clash on Tuesday, September 10.
Padres vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
George Kirby Over 5.5 hits allowed (+110 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
T-Mobile Park is an extreme pitchers park but the San Diego Padres should be able to string together hits against struggling Seattle Mariners right-hander George Kirby.
Since the start of August, Kirby has pitched to a 6.10 ERA with an OBA of .321 across six starts. That includes a pair of outings at home against offensively inept Giants and Tigers squads where he surrendered 16 hits in 9 2/3 innings.
Now he faces a Padres lineup that has been red-hot at the dish. The Friars lead the majors in batting average against righties (.273) while ranking fifth in OPS (.761). They've been on fire since the All-Star break, plating 5.26 runs per game, and superstar slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. returned earlier this month, which could take this offense to another level.
Kirby does a good job of generating strikeouts and ranks in the top 20th percentile in chase rate. However, the Padres strike out at the lowest rate in the majors while posting the highest chase contact percentage (63.4%).
The Padres also play their home contests at a pitcher-friendly park and average an MLB-best 9.82 hits per game on the road. Don't expect them to be intimidated by the spacious dimensions at T-Mobile and fade Kirby on his hits total.
Padres vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
George Kirby Over 5.5 hits allowed
Yu Darvish Under 1.5 walks
Manny Machado Over 0.5 strikeouts
Yu Darvish came back from a three-month absence last Wednesday to get shelled for three runs in 2 2/3 innings. Darvish walked two batters in that contest but the veteran generally has good control so that was likely due to rust. I expect him to display better control in this contest and he's still building up to a full workload, which makes it likely he'll go below his walks total with a lower pitch count.
Manny Machado has struck out a team-high 105 times. He has fanned at least once in five of his last seven games and there's a good chance he goes down swinging against Kirby or a Mariners bullpen that ranks fifth in the majors in strikeout rate (25.9%).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Mariners odds
Padres vs Mariners live odds
Padres vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego -115 | Seattle -105
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+150) | Seattle +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (+100) | Under 7 (-120)
Padres vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the M's, shifting their line from -105 to -120. The Over 7 has also moved to -120 after opening at +100.
- The Padres are 31-15 since the All-Star break and have the fourth-best record in the NL at 81-64.
- The Mariners have gone 4-1 in their last five games and sit two games above .500 on the season.
- The Mariners have won six of the last seven meetings between these teams.
Padres vs Mariners trend
The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 67 games (+13.65 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mariners.
Padres vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, ROOT Northwest |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Yu Darvish (4-3, 3.20 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | George Kirby (10-10, 3.63 ERA) |
Padres vs Mariners latest injuries
Padres vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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