Padres vs Giants Picks and Predictions: Do the Dogs Have Value?

San Diego's trotting out a bullpen game today as they fight to the death for a Wild Card berth. But is there value in backing them against the vaunted Kevin Gausman? Our Padres vs Giants picks have the answers.

Last Updated: Sep 16, 2021 8:16 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Fernando Tatis Jr. San Diego Padres MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

After a late one on Wednesday, the San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park in San Francisco, California at 3:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 16. The Padres are still in the mix for a spot in the NL Wild Card Game, so nearly everything is turning into a must-win game at this point in the year. 

Will San Diego come away with the win at Oracle Park tonight? Find out in our Padres vs. Giants picks and predictions.

Padres vs Giants game info

Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA    
Date: Thursday, September 16, 2021
Time: 3:45 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS BA, BSN, MLBN

Padres vs Giants odds

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Padres vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Bullpen: You might see Ross Detwiler listed as the starter for the Padres in some places, but this is going to be a bullpen game for San Diego. On the year, only the Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers have a lower bullpen ERA than the Padres, so this isn’t exactly a death sentence for San Diego. Somebody will need to come through and give the team a bit more work than usual, but it has been done before. 

Kevin Gausman (14-5, 2.65 ERA): Gausman hasn’t been as dominant as he was early in the season, but he has given up three or fewer earned runs in nine consecutive starts. The Giants have also won in six of his last eight trips to the mound. Gausman has faced the Padres three times this season, with the righty going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in those games. He’ll be looking forward to seeing them again. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Padres: Jake Cronenworth SS (questionable), Drew Pomeranz RP (out)
Giants: Alex Dickerson OF (out), Donovan Solano 2B (out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in San Diego’s last five games against a right-handed starter.  Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants.

Moneyline pick

The Padres might be turning to the bullpen in this game, but the Giants went there themselves on Wednesday. That means that San Francisco won’t have many available arms behind Gausman, putting a lot of pressure on the righty to perform. And while Gausman has been great against San Diego this year, there’s a good chance that the Padres will break through in this one. 

For starters, the Padres do have some guys that are capable of hitting Gausman hard, if given the chance. Jurickson Profar and Adam Frazier are two unlikely hitters that are a combined 11 for 34 with four doubles and two RBIs against the righty in their careers. Meanwhile, Tommy Pham is 4 for 9 with a double against Gausman, and Fernando Tatis Jr. is 3 for 8 with a solo shot off the righty. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if any of them came through in this game, and it’s worth noting that only 11 teams have more homers against righties than the Padres this year. 

Overall, it just isn’t that hard to envision a scenario in which Gausman can only give the Giants five or so innings, and that would give San Diego a chance to pounce on a tired bullpen. It’s not guaranteed, but the value is just there — especially when factoring in how good the Padres bullpen can be. 

PREDICTION: Padres ML (+130) 

Over/Under pick

These teams hit the Over in Wednesday’s game and now have a good chance to do it again. The Padres are trotting out a collection of relievers in this game, so they’d have to be happy if the Giants only score four or so runs in this game. 

Meanwhile, the Giants have Gausman out there and he’s been more hittable as of late. On top of that, San Francisco doesn’t have enough arms behind him at the moment. That leaves the Giants a bit more vulnerable than usual, and this Padres offense finally snapped out of a slump on Wednesday. Look for them to stay hot with a big offensive performance in this one. 

PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-110) 

Padres vs Giants betting card

  • Padres ML (+130) 
  • Over 8.5 (-110) 

Picks made on 9/16/2021 at 12:55 a.m. ET

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