Padres vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Bats Do Damage Against Rookie Hurlers

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres for the first of a three-game series that will mark the last of the season between these two ballclubs. 

Both entered the year in a similar position — with loaded rosters and high expectations. They have since moved in opposite directions, with Dave Roberts’ side holding a 13-game lead in the NL West while the Padres sit 21 games back in the division and are simply looking to wrap up what’s been a colossal disappointment of a season. 

Should we expect to see fireworks with both respective squads sending up a rookie starting pitcher to the mound? 

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Dodgers on Monday, September 11. 

Padres vs Dodgers odds

Padres vs Dodgers predictions

I’m going to take a closer look at these starting pitchers and make a play on the total for my best bet. 

The San Diego Padres send Pedro Avila to the mound, a 26-year-old right-hander who has alternated between the bullpen and the rotation. While his 2.19 ERA across 37 IP looks like a promising sign, there are plenty of other reasons for concern. 

First off, he struggles with walks. His 11.9% BB-rate is enormous and is mostly due to a breakdown last game in which he offered up six free passes. Secondly, he’s surviving off a 75.6% LOB% that does not seem sustainable and will result in a significant ERA bump once it normalizes.

Lastly, there’s the fact he was absolutely shelled in Triple-A this season (8.57 ERA, 7.07 xERA, 6.39 FIP). He’s never been an elite hurler in the Minors, sporting a 4.28 ERA across 174 appearances and 132 starts. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be able to do some damage at the plate against Avila. The Boys in Blue have posted a 123 wRC+ and a .352 wOBA against right-handers across their last 10 games. Most recently, they plated 21 runs in a three-game series against the Nationals. 

Gavin Stone gets the nod for Los Angeles with Clayton Kershaw’s start pushed back until Friday. The rookie has been hit hard across 18 IP with the Big Leagues, sporting a 10.50 ERA and 2.28 WHIP. His performance on the big stage has been quite different than it has been in the Minors, where he’s notched a career 18-12 record and 3.19 ERA while striking out 426 batters across 313 IP.

The Padres have been performing decently at the dish lately, sporting a 119 wRC+ and a .341 WHIP across their last 10 games. There’s still talent in this lineup and Stone will need to show me more at this level before I become a believer.

One of the best ways to attack the Dodgers all season long is to target the Over. Dave Roberts’ squad is a remarkable 83-53-6 O/U on the year and has shown no signs of veering off course, going 7-2-1 O/U in their last 10 games. Expect more of the same on Monday.

My best bet: Over 9.5 (-110 at bet365)

Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay

Over 9.5 (-115)

Dodgers -1.5 (+115)

Gavin Stone to record 3+ strikeouts (-190)

+450 at DraftKings

This SGP will be a three-legger centered around my best bet on the Over 9.5. The first play I’ll add to that centerpiece will be taking the Dodgers -1.5 on the run line for +115 odds.

They've been terrific against right-handed pitching this year with a 64-34 record, whereas the Padres are a measly 43-58 against right-handed starters. I give the Dodgers a slight starting pitching advantage and a substantial lineup advantage, and these two teams are in polar opposite positions to end the year for a reason. 

The third and final leg will be taking Stone to record at least three strikeouts. The rookie has an impressive 27.8% K-rate at Triple-A this season and the most bullish of projections (ATC DC) calls for a 25.3% MLB K-rate while the most bearish (THE BAT) still calls for a 20.9% K-rate. This prop looks like it’s priced too low and Stone likely clears this low bar even if he gets roughed up a bit by the Padres.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Padres vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Dodgers can currently be had from between -168 to -175 while the best comeback available on the Padres is +150. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool before placing your wager. The total is set at 9.5. 

Compared to Avila, Stone has a much better Triple-A resume and therefore, I give the Dodgers a starting pitching advantage. Stone possesses a ton of potential and the projection systems are still bullish on his prospects despite a bumpy first couple of starts in the Big Leagues — ATC DC is the most favorable, calling for a 3.86 ERA.

My preferred method of attacking a side would be to play the Dodgers on the run line at -1.5 for +115 odds.

I considered that as my best bet for Monday’s matchup but decided that the uncertainty surrounding Stone was enough to make me steer clear. It may be best to sit back and see how he does in his first start since getting called up from Triple-A considering his results in the Big Leagues have been a train wreck thus far. 

As for the total, this starting pitching matchup points in the direction of the the Over. Avila has been absolutely shelled at Triple-A this season and his ERA at the Big Leagues — while impressive — is almost certainly unsustainable as he walks far too many batters and is relying on the luck of stranding runners on base. 

Trend to know

The Dodgers have hit the Over in 73 of their last 122 games for a 19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers

Padres vs Dodgers game info

Starting pitchers

Pedro Avila (1-2, 2.19 ERA): Last time out, Avila held the Phillies scoreless across 6 2/3 IP despite walking six, allowing two hits, and striking out just a single batter. His 1.35 WHIP and 38:19 K:BB ratio paints a different picture than his ERA through four starts this year. The 26-year-old was 1-6 with an 8.57 ERA across 55 2/3 IP at Triple-A. 

Gavin Stone (1-0, 10.50 ERA): Stone gets a turn in the rotation as Clayton Kershaw’s start has been pushed back to Friday. The rookie has been hit hard in 18 IP this season, sporting a 10.50 ERA and 2.28 WHIP across five appearances, three of which have been starts. In his last start in the Minors, he threw six shutout innings while issuing just a single walk and a single hit and notching seven strikeouts. 

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