MLB Draft Odds: Termarr Johnson Now Favored to Go 1st Overall

The 2022 MLB draft kicks off on July 17. Who will the Baltimore Orioles take with the top pick? Termarr Johnson is now projected to be the first selection, but there are other players in the mix, including sons of former stars.

Last Updated: Jul 17, 2022 3:16 PM ET Read Time: 5 min
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The 2022 Major League Baseball draft will begin tonight, Sunday, July 17, and betting markets are seeing plenty of changes. The biggest question on everyone's mind is who the Baltimore Orioles will take with the top pick.

The odds board has shifted dramatically over the last few days, too. Druw Jones was the betting favorite for most of the week leading up to tonight's draft until Brooks Lee leaped up to -400 as of this morning. Well, things changed again over the course of a few hours and Termarr Johnson is suddenly the betting favorite with hours to go until Baltimore makes its pick.

And while his name doesn't appear in the initial odds, look for Kumar Rocker to go at some point after the Mets elected not to sign him after selecting him with the 10th overall pick in 2021.

Here are the odds for which player will be selected first overall in the 2022 MLB draft.

2022 MLB Draft: Odds to go first overall

Player Odds to go first overall 
Termarr Johnson -300
Brooks Lee +240
Druw Jones  +400
Jackson Holliday  +750
Jacob Berry +8,000
Elijah Green +10,000
Kevin Parada  +15,000
Gavin Cross  +20,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 17, 2022.

Favorites to be picked first overall in the 2022 MLB draft

Termarr Johnson (+400)

Johnson may be the best pure hitter in the draft, and now he looks like his talents might have him going first overall.

The Arizona State commit is expected to switch positions from shortstop to second base going forward. As a junior, Johnson hit .400/.558/.981 with eight home runs while going a perfect 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts, according to Even if Baltimore doesn't ultimately select him, he is poised to be a Top-5 pick.

Brooks Lee (+240)

In a prep-heavy draft, Lee is the top college player on the odds board. The 21-year-old was drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 35th of the 2019 draft but elected to go play college ball at California Polytechnic where his father Larry coached. Over three seasons in NCAA, Lee has hit .351/.426/.647 with 25 home runs (15 this season) in 115 games. 

A switch-hitting shortstop, Lee may not stick at the position long-term but has excellent arm strength and could fit at the hot corner. If the Orioles want to go with a player who is closer to being pro-ready, Lee is their guy. And you can bet there will be tons of cheeky articles comparing him to a different Brooks in legendary Orioles third baseman Brooks Robinson.

On Sunday morning, it looked like this would be the case, but now lines have shifted and Lee may be desert-bound should the Diamondbacks pluck him with the second pick.

Druw Jones (+265)

Jones looks to follow in his father's footsteps. Andruw Jones made his MLB debut as a 19-year-old wunderkind with the Atlanta Braves in 1996. Over the course of a 17-year career, he hit 434 home runs, won 10 Gold Glove awards in center field, and appeared in five All-Star games. 

Now, his son Druw is the top-ranked draft prospect by, The Athletic's Keith Law, and ESPN's Kiley McDaniel. It's easy to see why, but let's allow the five-tool prospect to put it in his own words:

The 18-year-old is committed to Vanderbilt but will certainly forego college as one of the top picks expected to come off the board. Despite opening as the favorite, it's looking like he may slip to the Diamondbacks at No. 2 or even the Texas Rangers at No. 3.

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Jackson Holliday (+600)

The 2021 draft was loaded with shortstop talent including Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Kahlil Watson, Brady House, Matt McLain, and Trey Sweeney all going within the first 20 picks. The top shortstop on the board this year, according to odds and pundits alike, is Holliday.

Like Jones, Holliday comes from a MLB bloodline as father Matt played 15 seasons split between the Colorado Rockies, St. Louis Cardinals, Oakland Athletics, and New York Yankees.

Holliday was named Oklahoma's prep player of the year and broke J.T. Realmuto's national high school record for hits in a season when he tallied 89 over 41 games last season while batting a ridiculous .685. He's Johnson's closest rival with the stick among prep stars.

Recent MLB Draft history

Here is a look back at the last 10 first overall selections:

Year Player Position Team
2021 Henry Davis Catcher Pittsburgh Pirates
2020 Spencer Torkelson First base Detroit Tigers
2019 Adley Rutschman Catcher Baltimore Orioles
2018 Casey Mize Right-handed pitcher Detroit Tigers
2017 Royce Lewis Shortstop Minnesota Twins
2016 Mickey Moniak Center fielder Philadelphia Phillies
2015 Dansby Swanson Shortstop Arizona Diamondbacks
2014 Brady Aiken Left-handed pitcher Houston Astros
2013 Mark Appel Right-handed pitcher Houston Astros
2012 Carlos Correa Shortstop Houston Astros

Understanding MLB Draft betting

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Jonathan India emerged as the National League Rookie of the Year in 2021, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number down the stretch. 

Jonathan India -1,200

That means that a bettor in September had to wager $1,200 to win $100 by betting on India to win NL Rookie of the Year. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.

Reid Detmers +2,000

That means a bettor would profit $2,000 for a $100 wager on Detmers before the season started if he's ultimately successful. 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

2022 MLB Draft FAQ

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