The New York Mets and Kansas City Royals clash once again in an afternoon matchup at Kauffman Stadium.
While Michael Lorenzen’s statistics at home look good on paper, it’s been a different story lately.
My Mets vs. Royals predictions will explain why I expect New York to get to generate some offense against the right-hander.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, July 12.
Mets vs Royals prediction
My Mets vs Royals best bet: Michael Lorenzen Over 2.5 earned runs (-120 at Bet99)
Michael Lorenzen is having a respectable campaign for the Kansas City Royals, going 5-8 in 18 starts with a 4.61 ERA. He’s struck out 85 hitters in 99.1 innings of work while allowing 29 walks.
Lorenzen did throw seven scoreless frames against the Arizona Diamondbacks last time out, but there’s reason to believe he won’t have that same success today.
The veteran has surrendered Over 2.5 earned runs in three consecutive appearances at Kauffman Stadium. On June 26, he gave up four earned runs to the Tampa Bay Rays.
The start before that at home? Another three earned to the lowly Athletics. Yes, his ERA at home is 3.79, which is a mile better than his road statistics, but Lorenzen isn’t having much success on his home mound over the last few outings.
Although the New York Mets, as a lineup, are hitting just .156 off Lorenzen across 64 at-bats, they did manage to score three runs off him last season. New York also just scored eight runs in the series opener.
Mets vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)
Michael Lorenzen Over 2.5 earned runs
Mark Vientos Over 0.5 singles
Frankie Montas Over 3.5 strikeouts
Mark Vientos isn’t exactly having the best season in the Big Apple. He’s batting just .217 with six home runs, which is far below the expectations New York has for him. However, he has two multi-hit games in his last three, cashing the Over in singles in both of those contests.
Vientos is also a perfect 2 for 2 all-time against Lorenzen with a single and a double. 32 of his 49 hits in 2025 have been base knocks. If he does do some damage, it’s more than likely going to be via the single.
Frankie Montas just returned to the Mets’ rotation after missing most of the campaign so far due to injury. He’s struggled since coming back, posting a 6.14 ERA in three starts. But, there’s value in his strikeout total this afternon because it sits at just 3.5.
The righty has collected 12 punchouts in 14.2 innings and has cashed the Over in strikeouts in two of his three appearances. Montas sat down five hitters via the K in back-to-back starts before imploding last week against the New York Yankees.
He shouldn’t have an issue hitting four punchouts today, at the very least.
Mets vs Royals odds
Mets vs Royals live odds
Mets vs Royals opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -130 | Kansas City +110
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+125) | Kansas City +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Mets vs Royals trend
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Royals.
How to watch Mets vs Royals and game info
| Location | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Saturday, 7-12-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, FanDuel Sports Network-Kansas City |
| Mets starting pitcher | Frankie Montas (1-1, 6.14 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher | Michael Lorenzen (5-8, 4.61 ERA) |
Mets vs Royals latest injuries
Mets vs Royals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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