The Los Angeles Dodgers have shown who the top dog in the National League West is during this series against the rival San Diego Padres, looking to pull off a four-game sweep tonight.
But not so fast, my friends.
My Padres vs. Dodgers predictions explain why that may not be as easy as it looks, with Fernando Tatis Jr. set to have a big game at the plate.
Find out more in my MLB picks for this epic NL West showdown, with first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, June 19.
Padres vs Dodgers prediction
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have flexed their muscles in this series against the San Diego Padres, scoring 18 runs on 29 hits over the first three games.
With L.A. handing the ball to Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Thursday’s finale, things are set up well for the sweep... or are they?
Yamamoto has looked excellent for most of the season and is in the Cy Young conversation, but he’s hit a bit of a blip lately, getting beaten up recently by the Yankees and Giants.
The Yanks tagged him for four runs on seven hits, while San Fran got to him for five runs on six hits. His command has been one of the issues, as evidenced by the eight free passes he's handed out in those starts.
The 26-year-old righty enters tonight with good, but not elite numbers, ranking in the 79th percentile in expected ERA and the 76th in expected batting average.
Yoshinobu has also had some issues with this Padres lineup in the past, particularly with Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis is 3-for-5 with two walks in his career vs. Yamamoto, which is good for a .399 xBA.
Despite the Dodgers' dominance in this matchup this season, you can’t blame Tatis. The Padres' star slugger is hitting .387 with a 1.009 OPS over his last nine games, which includes six games against L.A.
Give me the Over 1.5 on Tatis' total bases, something he’s cleared in four of his last six outings overall.
Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 walks allowed
Manny Machado is having a great month of June, hitting .324 with a .942 OPS, five home runs, and 20 RBI. He’s also driven in at least one run in 10 of his 17 games played this month.
Yamamoto ranks in the 34th percentile in walk rate and has handed out multiple free passes in six consecutive starts.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Padres vs Dodgers live odds
Padres vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +205 | Los Angeles -250
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (+100) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 | Under 9.0
Padres vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers have hit the game total Over in 23 of their last 35 games at home, resulting in +11.00 units and a 28% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Thursday, 6-19-2025 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, SportsNet LA |
| Padres starting pitcher | Ryan Bergert (1-0, 2.33 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-5, 2.64 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Padres vs Dodgers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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