The Los Angeles Dodgers are heavy favorites against the San Diego Padres, but this spread price is too aggressive.
JP Sears has real contact-risk issues, but Emmet Sheehan is not safe enough to justify laying a run and a half at this number.
Here are my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for July 5.
Who will win Padres vs Dodgers tonight: Padres +1.5 (-114)
This price on the San Diego Padres to keep this close is too good to pass up, especially with the added motivational angle of avoiding back-to-back sweeps by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
JP Sears has struggled, but his changeup should see positive regression. It owns roughly a .317 career xwOBA, far better than this year’s .649 mark.
It's helpful that the Dodgers lineup includes a few names who have struggled against the changeup this season, too, with Freddie Freeman and Kyle Tucker owning negative run values against it.
Emmet Sheehan also gives a path to enough offense. Play this to -130.
COVERS INTEL: JP Sears' expected ERA is currently three runs higher than it's been during the completion of a season in his MLB career.
Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-105)
I made this total 9.1 and see value on the Under down to -135. The reasoning is a continued echo of the sentiment above.
Sears can do enough to keep the Dodgers from putting up a big number, and the Padres offense won't explode against Sheehan. An Under bet with the best offense in baseball is always a risk, but I project L.A. for 4.5 runs.
On the other side, Sheehan is imperfect with a 10.4% barrel rate allowed, but his 26.1% strikeout rate can keep the Padres from carrying their half.
- ML/RL bets: 33-32, +2.77 units
- Over/Under bets: 40-27, +17.40 units
Padres vs Dodgers weather
Padres vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Padres +184 | Dodgers -210
- Run line: Padres +1.5 | Dodgers -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Sunday, July 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Padres starting pitcher | JP Sears (1-1, 6.97 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Emmet Sheehan (4-5, 5.08 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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