The San Diego Padres will look to even their three-game set with a win over the betting-favorite Chicago Cubs (-148) at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, June 30.
My top Padres vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks call for just the opposite, with Chicago winning another low-scoring game tonight.
Who will win Padres vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (-148)
The Chicago Cubs have won nine of their past 11 while averaging 7.3 runs per game and ranking seventh in wOBA, so I think we’re landing a fair number considering San Diego Padres lefty JP Sears entered 2026 with an underwhelming 4.87 xFIP and 12.9% strikeout-to-walk ratio across 58 2/3 innings.
Of course, the North Siders also rank third in wOBA against southpaws for the season, while the Friars check in 29th. So, the matchup sets up perfectly for Cubs starter Matthew Boyd in his second start back from knee and shoulder injuries.
San Diego ranking 24th in xwOBA over the past 30 days makes this Chicago moneyline playable down to -155 for me.
COVERS INTEL: The San Diego Padres have the third-lowest wOBAcon, which further highlights their struggles generating offense and paves the way for the Chicago Cubs moneyline and the Under 11.5.
Padres vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 11.5 (-112)
There were similarly favorable hitting conditions at Wrigley Field in the series opener Monday, and the Padres and Cubs combined for just five runs, so I think this is another inflated total.
Especially considering the highlighted shortcomings of the San Diego offense, alongside the Padres playing to the Under in six of their past eight road games (+3.90 Units / 44% ROI).
Chicago has also only played to the Over in 23 of its past 50 games (-6.40 Units / -12% ROI), so I’d recommend this Under down to -120.
- ML/RL bets: 29-16, +14.57 units
- Over/Under bets: 17-13, +2.97 units
Padres vs Cubs weather
Padres vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Padres +130 | Cubs -150
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (-135) | Cubs -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 11.5 (-105) | Under 11.5 (-115)
Padres vs Cubs trend
The Chicago Cubs have won 13 of their last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs.
How to watch Padres vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Tuesday, June 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, MARQ |
| Padres starting pitcher | JP Sears (1-0, 3.18 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (2-1, 5.02 ERA) |
Padres vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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