The San Diego Padres will look to stay neck-and-neck with the Dodgers for the top spot in the NL West as they try to send the Chicago Cubs to their ninth straight defeat in the swirling winds of Wrigley tonight.
The Padres clobbered the Cubs’ bullpen for 11 runs over four innings last night in a 12-5 win and could do the same tonight with Chicago rookie pitcher Caleb Kilian getting the ball for the home side.
Can the visitors continue to stack up wins despite being an underdog for the first time in this series or can the Cubs fix their bullpen and end this miserable losing streak? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Cubs.
Padres vs Cubs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Cubs opened as -120 moneyline favorites Wednesday morning and are gaining some steam as they’ve moved to -140 as of noon today. San Diego closed as -125 favorites in the opener and -128 yesterday.
The total has been inflated thanks to some weak starting pitching, strong winds blowing out to center and high temperatures at Wrigley. Today’s total opened at 11.5 and is leaning to the Over. Yesterday, in similarly windy conditions, the total closed at 11 but featured much better starting pitching than today.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Padres vs Cubs predictions
Picks made on 6/15/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Padres vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Wednesday, June 15, 2022
• First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego, Marquee Sports Network-Chicago
Padres vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ryan Weathers LHP (0-0, -.-- ERA): The 22-year-old left-hander has been called up from AAA to make his first start with the Padres this season after getting 30 games (18 starts) with the Friars in his rookie season last year. Weathers has been getting pounded in AAA this season with a 7.29 ERA across 12 starts where he has allowed 76 hits (12 home runs) over 54-plus innings. We doubt he goes deep and gives way to a San Diego bullpen that has thrown just six innings in the series and has allowed zero runs on three hits.
Caleb Kilian RHP (0-0, 5.40 ERA): The Cubs will send out rookie right-hander Caleb Killian to try to end the team’s current eight-game losing streak. Killian will have to battle 19 mph winds blowing out to center at Wrigley in what will be just his second MLB start. The 25-year-old starter threw just 83 pitches in his debut and allowed three runs over five innings while striking out six against the Cardinals. He has very respectable numbers (2.32 ERA) in AAA this season but with the wind and the hot Padres bats, we doubt the rookie gets deep here and that’s likely why we’re seeing a total of 11.5.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Wil Myers OF (Out).
Cubs: Nick Madrigal 2B (Questionable), Seiya Suzuki OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1-1 in the Cubs' last nine home games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs.
Padres vs Cubs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The San Diego Padres obliterated the Cubs’ bullpen last night and turned a 4-0 deficit into a comfortable 12-5 victory thanks to 11 runs on 11 hits versus the home side’s relievers. With rookie pitcher Caleb Kilian getting the ball for the Cubs, the visitors could easily see themselves facing this beat-up Chicago pen again today — likely sooner rather than later.
The Padres have virtually tied with the Dodgers for the top spot in the NL West thanks to one of the league’s best bullpens and an offense that has the potential to put up double digits nightly, even with Fernando Tatis Jr. still on the sidelines.
Jake Croneworth has a 0.955 OPS over the last 15 games with 18 hits and 18 knocked in. He has recorded three hits in back-to-back games and will get a chance to do some damage today versus Kilian and the Chicago bullpen that has the league’s second-worst ERA (5.98) over the last 30 days.
Croneworth and the offense have also been supported by Luke Voit (16 RBI and 17 hits over his last 15 games) and Manny Machado (No. 3 betting favorite for NL MVP and hitting .315 on the season).
With a total of 11.5 that’s inching to the Over, books are expecting runs today and although we think the Cubs can generate some offense versus San Diego starter Ryan Weathers, this game will certainly be won in the middle and late innings as neither starter is expected to go deep.
The Padres’ pen has so far shut down the Cubs in the series with six shutout innings. San Diego did need five innings from its relievers yesterday but that was from the “B” pen and their Top- 5 relievers (including middle relievers) are available tonight. Closer Taylor Rogers also looks to be back on track after a short rough patch a week ago.
This is in sharp contrast to the Cubs who used four of their top-seven relievers yesterday in a failed effort to protect a multi-run lead. With Kilian likely to get an early hook, the Padres could be teeing off versus the Cubs’ relievers but David Ross might not have his best middle-inning arms available today which should favor the visitors in the middle-to-late innings.
It could be a back-and-forth game early on but the Padres have a very large advantage in the pen and should be able to claw back if they do find themselves down by multiple runs early — just like yesterday.
Prediction: Padres moneyline (+120 at bet365)
Over/Under analysis
With a full-game total of 11.5 and a first-five total of 6.5, the books are expecting plenty of runs throughout this game’s entirety. In saying that, we’re predicting more runs in the earlier innings as we feel the San Diego bullpen should keep the Chicago bats at bay in the later innings but enough damage could be done early to get this Over 11.5 across the line.
Next to the game in Coors Field, tonight’s game in Wrigley has the next highest total and by a fair margin — two runs. The reasoning for this is in the starting pitching matchup that will feature a rookie making his second MLB start in Kilian and a lefty making his first start this season but has also been getting crushed in AAA with a 7.29 ERA in Weathers.
We're expecting both starters to get hit hard early and often. With 19 mph winds blowing out to center field expected, it’s a bad spot for Weathers and Kilian.
Kilian could be asked to dig down and eat some innings after yesterday’s bullpen usage and if that were to happen, it would also favor the Over.
Despite the eight-game losing skid, the Cubs have some pop in the middle of the order and could certainly hang some crooked numbers before they get to see the Padres’ pen. Wilson Contreras is swinging one of the hottest sticks in baseball right now and owns a 1.157 OPS over the last 15 games with six long balls. He went 3-for-4 yesterday and swatted a pair of home runs in the loss.
This game will be settled in the later innings but both clubs could certainly do enough damage early to hit this massive total of 11.5. These hitting conditions are perfect and we’re starting to see books already move to 12.
Prediction: Over 11.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Best bet
The Padres will have a massive advantage at the plate today. They’ll see a weak starting pitcher in Kilian who doesn't even have a total outs market. Kilian’s AAA numbers are fine but this is just his second MLB start, he's facing a hot offense that put up 12 runs over the final four innings last night, and Wrigley has the best hitting conditions on the board.
If the Chicago starter struggles to locate (16 walks in 43 innings in AAA this season) versus a San Diego team that has a Top-10 walk rate, he could give way to a middle-relief group that is one of the worst in the league.
It’s not even the Chicago middle relievers who struggle, the whole bullpen has been roughed up plenty over the last 30 days. Daniel Norris and his 6.56 ERA could be a candidate to mop up Kilian’s potential mess and the only arm in the Cubs’ bullpen that scares us right now is closer David Robertson, but even he hasn’t pitched in four games thanks to the constant losing.
During this eight-game skid, the Cubs’ relievers have a lofty 7.74 ERA over 43 innings of work. They’re also giving up a ton of walks (5.44 BB/9) and home runs (1.88 HR/9).
The Padres shouldn’t have much difficulty hitting throughout the entirety of this game and with them being underdogs, we’re getting a great price on their team total Over.
Pick: Padres team total Over 5.5 (-115 at bet365)
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