Orioles vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Starters Keep Game Silent Early

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles will wrap up a three-game set in the Bronx tonight.

This is another hotly-contested AL East divisional series, as they typically are. The offense has been on the cards in the first two games, and the teams have split the pair. Whichever team comes out on top today will win the series and potentially itch closer to the divisional leaders down in Tampa Bay.

I break down the matchup, the best bet, and more in my MLB betting picks for Orioles vs. Yankees below.

Orioles vs Yankees odds

Orioles vs Yankees predictions

This isn't for the faint of heart but especially given what we've seen in the first two games between these two teams, I'm grabbing the first-five Under as my best bet tonight. Though neither of these pitchers impresses, there's a unique setup that includes a market overaction that gives it value here.

For starters, I wanted to address some of the intrigues of this market. We're seeing totals from 4.5 to 5.5 across significant books. In all cases, we see the Under 5 heavily shaded and 5.5 at a juicy price of -156 on FanDuel; I was able to grab a flat 5 on bet365 at -120.

This number went nicely with my projections of 4.5 at -110. So I price 5 at around -160, which gives us a solid edge of 6%. Taking an Under with two teams like this is always a bit scary, but there are reasons for it.

One of the crucial things pushing us to a play on the early Under is the conditions in Yankee Stadium tonight. We have two longball-reliant teams who are both on the high end of barrel rate and flyball rate. Because of that, you see them sometimes struggling to score when they can't get the long ball going — that might be the scenario tonight.

Even though both pitchers taking the mound — Kyle Gibson and Clarke Schmidt — have their hard-hit issues, I don't expect them to be as pronounced tonight. In addition, low temperatures and winds blowing in (notably higher early in the game) should keep fly balls down. According to BallparkPal.com, these two factors combine for a historical reduction of home runs by 25% and overall runs by 17%.

Of course, the weather isn't the only thing here. There's also something unique about the two starting pitchers. 

Their numbers are collectively less than impressive, but that public perception has opened up value on an inflated total. That's because the matchup for either pitcher isn't bad. Both pitchers throw a heavy dosage of breaking balls, and both of these teams struggle against that pitch.

You won't find that issue more defined than when you look at the numbers of each team's stars against breaking pitches. How about Aaron Judge? He's once again destroying the baseball with a ridiculous hard-hit rate and barrel rate. However, against breaking pitches, his batting average drops from nearly .300 to .216.

Look at Austin Hays. Again, one of the most vital offensive contributors on the team. Likewise, a player who sees his numbers plummet against breaking pitches, going from a .309 batting average to .225. In a vacuum, this indicates what you'll see throughout these two lineups. 

Grab the Under today but consider waiting even later to bet on it. The public perception of these teams and the trends as of late may mean that you'll get a better number than the one I'm giving at the time of writing. 

My best bet: First-five Under 5 (-120 at bet365)

Orioles vs Yankees moneyline analysis

There's no real edge for me on the moneyline to either side, and I won't have a bet. I would need -110 or better on the Yankees to bet them, as my projections have this as a coin flip. Because of that, they would lean toward the Orioles at the +115 price, but it's not enough for me when factoring in my handicap. 

Clarke Schmidt will have some situational motivation for this one. How much that means is anyone's guess, but it has to be mentioned. He's coming off an outing that I would best describe as a "sticky-stuff scare" where he was questioned but not ejected for some questionable foreign substance on his hands.

He also faces the potential of being replaced in the starting rotation with the return of prized offseason acquisition Carlos Rodon to the lineup. He sounded confident speaking to the media this week by simply saying he's "in a good spot." With all those things in mind, you have to think this start is circled and means more than another start to Schmidt. I'm not jumping in front to fade that. 

Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

As I discussed in my best bet, I'm on the Under tonight. My projections saw more of an edge on isolating the first five innings rather than anything else, though, so we went in that direction. There's also some uncertainty about the bullpen approach from each side, given that they've been decently taxed over the past few games — I'd like to avoid that.

As I mentioned, you'll find a few trends favoring the Under here. It's more about the spot, and the thought process of this can't continue at the same rate. However, it's worth mentioning some of the trends at play here.

The Over has hit in four straight Orioles games. In addition, we've seen totals go Over in the Yankees' last nine home games. The good news for us is that all trends eventually come to an end, and given that we're isolating the early total in this game, we can still afford them to continue. 

Orioles vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Kyle Gibson (5-3, 4.27 ERA): Most of Gibson's issues have been centered around simply allowing too much contact. His strike rate is near the bottom of baseball (14th percentile) and his whiff rate isn't much better (27th percentile). If he can reduce some of that contact, you may see some improvement. However, if he doesn't, then expect more of the same. Gibson did that against the Blue Jays and had one of his best games of the season when he allowed just one earned run in seven innings of work. 

Clarke Schmidt (2-4, 6.00 ERA): Schmidt's time as a Yankees starter could end. New York's rotation is getting healthy, forcing some movement, and Schmidt seems like the most likely candidate to be replaced. That's because it's been rough sledding for him this season, with an April ERA of nearly 7.00. With that said, there's been improvement in May. Schmidt dropped that ERA to around 5.00 this month and went five innings against the Reds in his last outing, surrendering just two earned runs. 

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The Orioles are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings against the Yankees. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees

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