It was almost cruel. The Toronto Blue Jays gave us a look at what this season could have been with a 5-2 win in the opener of their three-game series against the American League East-leading Baltimore Orioles.
The Jays got great starting pitching, timely hitting, and the bullpen closed the door on any sort of O’s comeback.
However, whether or not Toronto can do all three again tonight is a tall ask, and my Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks expect both teams to light up the scoreboard.
Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 (-103 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays got seven strong innings from veteran Chris Bassitt in last night’s 5-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles. Unfortunately, expecting a similar result from tonight’s starter might be asking a little too much.
The Blue Jays are set to hand the ball to Bowden Francis in Game 2 of this three-game set. Francis earned a spot in the Toronto rotation coming out of spring training, but his big league stint was not a pleasant one.
The 28-year-old right-hander made five appearances (two starts) where he pitched to an 8.59 ERA and surrendered a .932 OPS to opponents before getting sent back down to the minors.
Francis returned to the big-league roster in June as a long reliever, and while there has been a little improvement (he has a 4.20 ERA and a .803 opponent OPS over 13 games), the Orioles have been a big thorn in his side. Francis has surrendered seven runs on 11 hits while striking out just four batters in nine innings of work against the O’s this season, with Baltimore batters combining for a .333 expected batting average and a .668 expected slugging.
The Orioles counter Francis with newly acquired Trevor Rogers. While the left-hander has shown some flashes with the Marlins, he hasn’t quite put it all together this season. Rogers owns a 5.12 xERA and will now face a Jays offense that ranks eighth in batting average, 14th in OPS, and 15th in wRC+ since the All-Star break.
With the way both lineups are going, I’m betting this one goes Over the total.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+140 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Despite getting only two official at-bats thanks to a walk and a hit-by-pitch, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still managed to extend his impressive hitting streak to 18 games with a single last night.
Guerrero is hitting a crazy .500 over this 18-game streak. On top of that, the power has been back in a big way. He’s gone yard nine times over that stretch, where he boasts a 1.630 OPS and 18 RBI.
As noted, this season has been a bit of a struggle for southpaw Trevor Rogers, and Vladdy has feasted on left-handed pitching. Guerrero owns a .338 average and a 1.105 OPS when facing southpaws this season.
He has also driven in at least one run in 13 of his last 21 games overall, and at this price, our Covers Prop Projections have this as five-star play.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays live odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+130) | Toronto +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -150 | Toronto +125
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Orioles vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL East battle at +125, but early bettors liked the value with the home dogs and Toronto is now listed in the +115 range.
- Despite sitting at opposite ends of the AL East, the Blue Jays have played the Orioles tough, going 5-6 in their 11 meetings.
- The total hit the board at a lofty 9.5 and that's where it sits as of Wednesday afternoon.
- The Blue Jays and Orioles have played to the Over in six of the last nine meetings.
Orioles vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the game total Over in 32 of their last 43 games (+21.00 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays.
Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN2, Sportsnet1 |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Trevor Rogers (2-10, 4.76 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Bowden Francis (4-3, 5.64 ERA) |
Orioles vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Orioles vs Blue Jays weather
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