The Houston Astros are on a five-game losing streak as they host the Washington Nationals tonight.
My Nationals vs. Astros predictions are fading Houston with an inexperienced pitcher on the hill.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this interleague clash on Tuesday, July 29.
Nationals vs Astros prediction
My Nationals vs Astros best bet: First Five Innings Nationals -0.5 (+130 at bet365)
The Houston Astros will give another start to Jason Alexander, whom they acquired from the A's last month. The 32-year-old barely has any experience in the big leagues and is out of his depth as a starter.
He's fresh off an ugly outing against his former team, where he surrendered 11 hits and five runs in six innings. He now has an 8.14 ERA with an expected ERA of 5.40 in 21 innings. He last pitched in the majors in 2022, when he posted a 5.40 ERA in 71 1/2 innings with Milwaukee.
The Washington Nationals respond with Michael Soroka, who has a 4.85 ERA through 15 starts. That said, his analytics are impressive with his xERA (3.26), xBA (.217), and barrel rate (6.3%) all in the Top 25th percentile.
He'll face a Houston lineup that has struggled with injuries to sluggers Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Pena, and Yordan Alvarez. The Stros are 28th in OPS (.633) since the All-Star break and have mustered just 1.6 runs per game over their recent five-game skid.
I like the Nats as underdogs here, but I am wary of their terrible bullpen. So let's take that out of the equation and back Washington to have a lead after five innings at +130.
Nationals vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
F5 Nationals -0.5
Michael Soroka Under 4.5 hits
Astros to score last
Soroka has allowed fewer than 4.5 hits in seven of nine starts since the beginning of June. Whether or not the Nats have a lead after five innings will depend on whether he can limit an ice-cold Houston lineup.
While the Astros have a terrible starter, they have a significant advantage in the bullpen. Their relievers are fifth in the majors in ERA (3.41) and first in SIERA (3.26), while Washington's bullpen is dead-last in both categories (5.57 ERA, 4.27 SIERA).
Nationals vs Astros odds
Nationals vs Astros live odds
Nationals vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Washington +130 | Houston -155
- Run line: Washington +1.5 (-160) | Houston -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Nationals vs Astros trend
The Nationals have cashed the Run Line in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Astros.
How to watch Nationals vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, 7-29-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN2, SCHN |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Michael Soroka (3-8, 4.85 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Jason Alexander (1-1, 8.14 ERA) |
Nationals vs Astros latest injuries
Nationals vs Astros weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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