We're starting nice and early with our MLB picks for today, double-dipping in a 12:30 p.m. ET matchup at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
Read on to see why our baseball experts are on the side and the total for Rockies/Pirates — and why we're also backing the Red Sox tonight in a battle of star southpaws.
- UPDATE: Added Neil Parker's Best Bet for SEA/HOU.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: COL/PIT o7.5 |
-113 |
 Jon Metler: COL ML |
+156 |
 Joe Osborne: BOS ML |
+104 |
 Neil Parker: SEA/HOU u9.5 |
-117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rockies/Pirates Over 7.5
Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket
I’m hitting the early game and getting back on the Over with 14-mph winds blowing out to center field at PNC Park. Last night turned into a 14-run game — and Hunter Goodman wasn’t even in the starting lineup. Both bullpens have been more than generous over the last two weeks, ranking among the bottom four teams in ERA. Mason Montgomery gets the ball as Pittsburgh’s opener, and then it’ll be time for the Colorado Rockies to take swings at Carmen Mlodzinski, who has allowed 17 runs over his last 19+ innings. I like the Rockies, but I like runs more.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Rockies moneyline
Price: 39¢ (+156) at Polymarket
There won’t be many chances this season to back Chase Dollander in a true pitcher-friendly environment, considering he calls Coors Field home, but this is one of those spots — and it’s hard not to like the setup for him at PNC Park. Dollander has looked every bit the part of a frontline starter this season, featuring a 99-mph fastball paired with elite, high-spin secondary pitches. Those breaking balls and off-speed offerings should play even better away from altitude, with the conditions at PNC Park likely giving them sharper movement and more bite. The matchup also lines up well against Pirates slugger Oneil Cruz; a power right-hander with a high-carry four-seam fastball is exactly the type of pitcher that can give Cruz trouble because of his long swing path. If Dollander can neutralize Cruz at the top of the lineup, the Pittsburgh offense becomes far less intimidating. Given the combination of the park upgrade, Dollander’s stuff, and the matchup dynamics, I think the Rockies should be trading closer to 45-cent underdogs in this spot.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline
Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket
The Boston Red Sox haven’t had many bright spots this season, but they’ve been excellent against left-handed pitching, ranking fourth in OPS versus southpaws over the last month. That sets up well against Jesus Luzardo, who has regressed badly this season and already owns four starts with five or more earned runs allowed. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez will face his former team after allowing zero earned runs in four of his last five outings. The Philadelphia Phillies also rank dead last in road OPS, while Boston’s bullpen leads MLB in ERA over the last two weeks.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Mariners/Astros Under 9.5
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
Houston Astros starter Mike Burrows has found a groove across his past three starts with a 2.50 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a 30.6% hard-hit rate, and Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo has an unsustainably bad .364 BABIP and 59% strand rate. Add the potential for both teams to rest regulars in this afternoon series finale, and I’m anticipating both starters to put enough zeros on the scoreboard to keep this total Under the number.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tigers/Mets u7.5 | -115 |
| Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Mets predictions | |
| Giants ML | +140 |
| Read analysis in our Giants vs. Dodgers predictions | |
| Brewers ML | -138 |
| Read analysis in our Padres vs. Brewers predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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