It's a getaway Thursday for some. But for us here, betting the MLB player prop markets and digging for dingers, it's moving day as I'm looking to get into the black on the season once again.
Today's the day Fernando Tatis Jr. gets that home run monkey off his back, and the Athletics can turn Michael McGreevy's luck into a dinger today at Sutter Health Park.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, May 14.
Best MLB home run props today
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Fernando Tatis Jr.
Shea Langeliers
Home run pick: Fernando Tatis Jr (+525)
The drought ends today for Fernando Tatis Jr., who somehow has yet to go deep this year.
He’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball to this point. His xwOBA ranks second on the team despite slugging just .294. He also owns the fastest bat speed on the roster, ranks inside the Top 50 in baseball in that metric, and sits 25th in BlastContact%. Even his attack angle is in a great spot.
It’s a real head-scratcher, and it ends today against lefty Kyle Harrison, whom he’s taken deep over nine career at-bats while hitting .444.
Harrison is a fly-ball pitcher who might be pitching above expectations this season and profiles as a strong target today for a homerless Tatis, who feels more than due with the underlying metrics backing it up.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Padres.TV
Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+350)
There aren’t a lot of +EV home run props popping up in the projections today, but Shea Langeliers is one of them with a fair price around +300 against Michael McGreevy at the homer-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, where temperatures are expected around 80 degrees with slight winds blowing out.
THE BAT ranks Langeliers as the 15th-best home run hitter in baseball, and he’s launched four longballs over his last 28 at-bats.
McGreevy owns a .200 BABIP that simply isn’t sustainable, and his xERA sits nearly three full runs higher than his actual ERA.
He’s not a strikeout pitcher and will have to pitch to contact in a difficult environment. It’s a great home run hitter in a great home run park on a slate without many strong options.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Cardinals.TV
- HR picks: 13-71, -3.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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