Fresh off buying at the trade deadline and riding a hot streak, the San Diego Padres headline my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate.
Let's dive right into my latest MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 4.
MLB moneyline picks for August 4
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Angelsvs  Orioles |
-138 |
 Metsvs  Guardians |
-141 |
 Athleticsvs  Reds |
-125 |
 Nationalsvs  Phillies |
+251 |
 Cardinalsvs  Yankees |
+178 |
 White Soxvs  Red Sox |
+125 |
 Marlinsvs  Braves |
+133 |
 Twinsvs  Royals |
+135 |
 Piratesvs  Brewers |
-141 |
 Dodgersvs  Cubs |
+190 |
 Giantsvs  Rangers |
+178 |
 Blue Jaysvs  Astros |
-122 |
 Raysvs  Rockies |
+156 |
 Padresvs  Diamondbacks |
+108 |
 Tigersvs  Mariners |
+114 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-4.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 4
Angels vs Orioles: Orioles (-138)
Orioles win probability: 58%
The Birds draw Grayson Rodriguez, who has been flat-out horrendous on the mound this season. The Angels right-hander owns an 8.18 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, while allowing a 47.6% hard hit rate and 11% barrel rate.
The Orioles have cooled off a bit, but Rodriguez is the type of pitcher who can get this lineup rolling again. Expect Baltimore's bats to take advantage.
Mets vs Guardians: Guardians (-141)
Guardians win probability: 58%
I already love Jo Adell in this spot against Mets left-hander Sean Manaea if he's in the lineup tonight. Regardless, I'll gladly back Cleveland here.
Manaea has been brutal on the road this season, posting a 5.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. On the other side, Joey Cantillo has been solid, and his underlying metrics suggest there's even more room for improvement. Over his last five appearances, he owns a 2.45 expected ERA.
Both offenses have been ice cold, so I'll ride with the better arm.
Athletics vs Reds: Reds (-125)
Reds win probability: 56%
The Athletics' offense has been abysmal for weeks now, and despite what we thought we knew about Brady Singer, the guy has been nails.
Over the Reds right-hander's last five starts, he's posted a 2.37 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
Cincinnati's offense has also picked things up, recording a 110 wRC+, .337 wOBA, and .751 OPS over its last six games.
Pay the juice. Trust the Reds.
Nationals vs Phillies: Nationals (+251)
Nationals win probability: 28%
Yeah, Zack Littell has been pretty bad this year, and Jesus Luzardo has been nails. However, the Nationals still have a very lethal offense.
+251 is insane. Take the Nats.
Cardinals vs Yankees: Cardinals (+178)
Cardinals win probability: 36%
I'm starting to think the Yankees' name is the only reason they are constantly favored while sporting a 68 wRC+ over their last 12 games.
Ryan Weathers gets the ball for New York tonight, and he's actually been worse at home than on the road, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
On the other side, Hunter Dobbins' underlying metrics over his last five starts point toward positive regression.
I like the Cardinals to replicate last night's success.
White Sox vs Red Sox: White Sox (+125)
White Sox win probability: 45%
With the Red Sox coming off a sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers this past week, I expect a bit of a letdown here.
They'll either keep the momentum rolling or come back down to earth, and I'm leaning toward the latter. That was an emotional statement series for Boston, and I think the Chicago White Sox have a chance to catch them at the right time.
Give me the White Sox to sneak out a win tonight.
Marlins vs Braves: Marlins (+133)
Marlins win probability: 43%
This feels like a game that could see 20+ runs with Ryan Gusto and Grant Holmes taking the mound. Both guys have been struggling on the rubber lately.
With this matchup feeling more like a coin flip, I'll gladly take the underdog.
Miami's offense has started to heat back up, and even without Liam Hicks, this lineup is dangerous enough to pull off the upset.
Twins vs Royals: Royals (+135)
Royals win probability: 42%
With Joe Ryan posting a 9.82 ERA, 4.88 xERA, and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts, I'm riding with Kansas City.
Randy Dobnak has been serviceable over his last five outings, and with both offenses running cold, I'll side with the hotter arm.
Pirates vs Brewers: Brewers (-141)
Brewers win probability: 58%
I doubt I've written one of these articles where I've faded the Brewers. It's hard to do when they consistently get great pitching, and their offense is always clicking.
The same can't be said for the Pirates, who own a 75 wRC+, .273 wOBA, and .603 OPS over their last 12 games.
Logan Henderson has been nails for Milwaukee, and I expect that to continue tonight.
Dodgers vs Cubs: Cubs (+190)
Cubs win probability: 34%
Yes, I am dead serious. Take the Cubs.
What team has the biggest target on its back tonight? The Dodgers. Sure, they always do, but with this being Tarik Skubal's debut in Los Angeles, the Cubs will come out with a little extra edge.
Everyone is going to want to spoil the party, and I expect Chicago to claw its way to a win.
Giants vs Rangers: Giants (+178)
Giants win probability: 36%
San Francisco has been on a tear lately, and this price is simply wrong.
The Giants have sported a 113 wRC+ over their last six games, while the Rangers have managed just a 62. On the mound, left-hander MacKenzie Gore has struggled over his last five outings, posting a 6.41 ERA. Meanwhile, Blade Tidwell has looked much better over his last three starts.
There's a ton of value in backing the Giants here.
Blue Jays vs Astros: Astros (-122)
Astros win probability: 55%
I'm not even going to entertain backing an offense that owns an 89 wRC+, .297 wOBA, and .664 OPS over its last 12 games.
I don't care who's pitching for the Astros. I refuse to back one of the most lifeless lineups in baseball, especially with how red hot Houston's bats have been.
Give me the Astros.
Rays vs Rockies: Rockies (+156)
Rockies win probability: 39%
I have to be on the Rockies after the Rays hung two touchdowns on them last night. Expecting a team to replicate that kind of offensive explosion on back-to-back nights is asking a lot.
Add in the fact that this is Freddy Peralta's debut for the Rays, and the Rockies are catching Tampa Bay at the right time.
Give me Colorado to get its revenge at home tonight.
Padres vs Diamondbacks: Padres (+108)
Padres win probability: 48%
The Diamondbacks have cooled off over their last six games after being one of the hottest teams in baseball for the past few weeks.
Now they draw a red-hot Padres offense that's posted a 124 wRC+, .767 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last six games. Getting San Diego as an underdog feels like the right side.
Randy Vasquez also has solid underlying metrics pointing toward positive regression. Pair that with the hotter bats, and I'll gladly back the Padres tonight.
Tigers vs Mariners: Tigers (+113)
Tigers win probability: 47%
The Tigers' offense is on fire right now, posting a 170 wRC+, .413 wOBA, and .967 OPS over its last six games.
On the other side, the Mariners are finally starting to wake up offensively, but Detroit should come out on top in this matchup.
Emerson Hancock has been allowing plenty of hard contact, while Troy Melton has posted a sub-1.00 ERA over his last five starts.
I love the Tigers as a road dog.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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