A big slate Tuesday brings a ton of opportunities to the table, and tonight's MLB moneyline predictions are no exception.
I believe the Nationals and Reds are both longer than they should be on the road this evening.
Let's dive into the full slate with my MLB picks for July 21!
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MLB moneyline picks for July 21
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Twinsvs  Guardians |
-135 |
 Dodgersvs  Phillies |
+120 |
 Piratesvs  Yankees |
+135 |
 Raysvs  Blue Jays |
+104 |
 Oriolesvs  Red Sox |
-130 |
 Padresvs  Braves |
-130 |
 Giantsvs  Royals |
+102 |
 Metsvs  Brewers |
-133 |
 Tigersvs  Cubs |
+106 |
 White Soxvs  Rangers |
-120 |
 Marlinsvs  Astros |
-115 |
 Nationalsvs  Rockies |
-102 |
 Cardinalsvs  Angels |
-102 |
 Athleticsvs  Diamondbacks |
-130 |
 Redsvs  Mariners |
+102 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-21.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 21
Twins vs Guardians: Guardians (-135)
Guardians win probability: 57%
One of the biggest bright spots in the Guardians' rotation has been left-hander Parker Messick, who owns a 1.50 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last three outings. Overall, he has posted a 3.09 ERA at home.
Minnesota's offense has been hot lately, but it has not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, posting just a 96 wRC+ and .131 ISO.
Death. Taxes. Messick masterclass incoming.
Dodgers vs Phillies: Dodgers (+120)
Dodgers win probability: 46%
I said it yesterday, and I'll say it again today: When is the next time you'll be able to get the Dodgers at this price as an underdog?
After the Phillies hung a 10-spot on them last night, I fully expect the Monstars of L.A. to bounce back and get the win in Game 2.
Pirates vs Yankees: Pirates (+135)
Pirates win probability: 42%
Sure, Bubba Chandler has struggled over his last few starts, but the Pirates offense has been on fire lately, posting a 145 wRC+, .374 wOBA, and .223 ISO over its last six games.
The Yankees offense has finally woken up over its last few outings, but I still do not trust it, and I have no interest in laying juice with such an inconsistent lineup.
No Judge, no trust.
Rays vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays (+104)
Blue Jays win probability: 49%
I am not able to ignore Drew Rasmussen's 12.38 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over his last three starts. I like the Blue Jays at home tonight.
With both offenses being pretty cold over the last week or so, I think this game is up for grabs. Plus, with Rasmussen allowing hitters to do whatever they want lately, the Blue Jays' bats should come alive.
Orioles vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-130)
Red Sox win probability: 56%
I want to see 15 straight wins. We all do.
I also want no part of stepping in front of this freight train. Boston has been the hottest team in baseball all month long, so why would I get in the way of it?
Ranger Suarez is on the bump, taking on an Orioles team that has struggled against left-handed pitching. We saw it again last night against Payton Tolle.
Padres vs Braves: Braves (-130)
Braves win probability: 56%
It is the Braves or nothing for me. Walker Buehler owns a 16.36 ERA and 2.36 WHIP over his last three starts.
The Braves have started to heat up over their last 21 games, and with how bad Buehler has been lately, I want no part of backing the Padres.
Giants vs Royals: Royals (+102)
Royals win probability: 50%
Just give me the underdog.
Both offenses have been brutal, and both starters have been struggling lately. In a game that feels like a coin-flip, I'll gladly take the plus money.
Mets vs Brewers: Brewers (-133)
Brewers win probability: 57%
The Mets have posted just a 90 wRC+, .296 wOBA, .660 OPS, and .145 ISO over their last six games, while the Brewers have been the much better offense.
Brewers right-hander Brandon Sproat has hit a few speed bumps over his last couple of outings, but I still think he is good enough to keep this cold Mets offense in check.
Tigers vs Cubs: Tigers (+106)
Tigers win probability: 48%
We are letting David Peterson be a favorite?
He owns an 8.44 ERA, 6.16 xERA, and 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts. After how hot the Tigers' bats were against Jameson Taillon, I think it carries over against yet another awful arm.
White Sox vs Rangers: Rangers (-120)
Rangers win probability: 55%
After any team puts up double-digit runs, I want to fade them in their very next game. It is hard to replicate that much success on back-to-back days.
Plus, Noah Schultz has posted a 6.46 ERA over his last five outings.
Marlins vs Astros: Astros (-115)
Astros win probability: 54%
After a red-hot June and part of July, the Marlins have gone cold. Over their last six games, they own a 65 wRC+, .117 ISO, and .578 OPS.
Tyler Phillips has been no better, posting a 7.07 xERA and 1.93 WHIP over his last three starts.
Sure, Tatsuya Imai has been hit-or-miss, but he has maintained a 27% strikeout rate all year, and the Marlins are a swing-happy offense right now.
Nationals vs Rockies: Nationals (-102)
Nationals win probability: 50%
Sure, Miles Mikolas is horrible, but so is Michael Lorenzen.
The Nationals' bats have been on fire all month long, and I want no part of getting in the way of this explosive lineup. Over their last 21 games, they own a 138 wRC+, .367 wOBA, and .841 OPS.
Cardinals vs Angels: Cardinals (-102)
Cardinals win probability: 51%
With Matthew Liberatore shoving in his last three starts, I want to ride that wagon until it collapses.
Plus, I think he will continue to roll, as the Angels have posted just an 88 wRC+, .293 wOBA, and .081 ISO over their last six games. The Angels are frozen solid.
Athletics vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-130)
Diamondbacks win probability: 56%
The Diamondbacks' offense is finally starting to heat up. Over their last six games, they own a 113 wRC+, .336 wOBA, and .202 ISO.
The Athletics are still dealing with their offensive struggles while sending Jack Perkins to the bump this evening, who owns a 9.26 ERA over his last three starts.
Reds vs Mariners: Reds (+102)
Reds win probability: 50%
Getting the Reds at plus money when they are on fire, while the Mariners have been one of the coldest offenses in baseball over the last month, is exactly where I want the value.
Chase Burns has hit a cold streak, but with how swing-happy the Mariners can be, I think he will be able to settle in and be very sustainable this evening.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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