Saturday is upon us, and that means we have a full, 15-game MLB slate to attack.
I've scoured the MLB odds and have found a nice mix of underdogs and short favorites that will hopefully help you increase your bankrolls.
Read on for our MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, August 1.
MLB moneyline picks for August 1
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cardinalsvs  Blue Jays |
-127 |
 Marlinsvs  Mets |
-122 |
 White Soxvs  Rays |
-144 |
 Twinsvs  Mariners |
+144 |
 Piratesvs  Reds |
-117 |
 Philliesvs  Orioles |
-127 |
 Rangersvs  Astros |
-113 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Guardians |
-138 |
 Nationalsvs  Braves |
+178 |
 Yankeesvs  Cubs |
+104 |
 Royalsvs  Rockies |
-108 |
 Giantsvs  Padres |
-122 |
 Red Soxvs  Dodgers |
+156 |
 Brewersvs  Angels |
-122 |
 Tigersvs  Athletics |
-122 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of August 1.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 1
Cardinals vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays (-127)
Blue Jays win probability: 55.9%
St. Louis enters cold, dead last in MLB over the past 14 days with a paltry 67 wRC+ and .588 OPS. Kevin Gausman gives Toronto the edge on the mound over Quinn Mathews, while Toronto’s 3.49 SIERA bullpen should suppress the recently anemic Cardinals lineup.
Marlins vs New York Mets: Mets (-122)
Mets win probability: 55%
The Mets hold a distinct advantage across overall run creation and run prevention. New York’s pitching staff ranks eighth in SIERA (3.40) while posting a sparkling 2.00 ERA recently. Miami’s lineup remains stagnant (84 wRC+), giving Zac Thornton and the Mets bullpen the edge over Tyler Phillips.
White Sox vs Rays: Rays (-144)
Rays win probability: 59%
Drew Rasmussen and the Rays bullpen continue to stifle opposing bats, carrying a dominant 0.85 WHIP and 2.17 ERA over their last two weeks. While Chicago’s offense has lagged at an 89 wRC+, Tampa Bay’s elite run suppression creates strong value on the home team.
Twins vs Mariners: Twins (+144)
Twins win probability: 41%
The Twins are undervalued here. While Logan Gilbert presents a tough matchup, Minnesota offers prime plus-money value. Connor Prielipp can keep this game close against a Mariners offense that ranks 17th in wRC+ (94) with a subpar .295 OBP.
Pirates vs Reds: Pirates (-117)
Pirates win probability: 53.9%
Pittsburgh’s pitching efficiency carries the day here, posting a sixth-ranked 3.10 SIERA alongside a robust 19.7% K-BB% rate. Braxton Ashcraft matches up against Andrew Abbott, where Cincinnati’s offensive struggles (83 wRC+) and high strikeout tendency (26.4% K%) over the past 14 days make the Pirates a strong road target.
Phillies vs Orioles: Phillies (-127)
Phillies win probability: 55.9%
Cristopher Sánchez gives Philadelphia a steady starting baseline against Shane Baz. Baltimore’s pitching results look highly fraudulent; despite a 2.18 ERA, their 4.91 FIP and 4.40 SIERA point toward massive regression. Philadelphia’s league-average bats (99 wRC+) across the past 14 days should capitalize on Baltimore’s flawed bullpen.
Rangers vs Astros: Rangers (-113)
Rangers win probability: 53%
Jacob deGrom on the mound at close-to-pick-'em odds is prime MLB moneyline value. Texas features a surging offense over the past two weeks, ranking sixth in MLB with a 112 wRC+ and .453 SLG. Expect deGrom to outperform Ronel Blanco in this divisional clash.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians: Guardians (-138)
Guardians win probability: 58%
Cleveland’s pitching staff remains lethal, missing bats at a league-leading 31.8% strikeout rate alongside a 3.01 SIERA. Parker Messick gets a favorable home environment to neutralize Arizona’s hot bats, making Cleveland a solid choice at reasonable juice below the -150 threshold.
Nationals vs Braves: Nationals (+178)
Nationals win probability: 36%
Atlanta’s heavy -186 line automatically rules them out, but Washington is a live dog regardless. The Nationals represent MLB’s top offense over the last 14 days, pounding out a 143 wRC+, .369 OBP, and .893 OPS. Miles Mikolas needs only a modest outing to cash this prediction.
Yankees vs Cubs: Cubs (+104)
Cubs win probability: 49%
The Cubs offer exceptional home underdog value against a reeling Yankees squad. Chicago ranks third in MLB hitting over the last two weeks (127 wRC+, .814 OPS), whereas New York’s offense has collapsed to a .206 average and 70 wRC+. Back David Peterson and Chicago’s bats.
Royals vs Rockies: Royals (-108)
Royals win probability: 52%
Coors Field games carry variance, but Colorado remains one of the coldest lineups in baseball (73 wRC+, 28th). Luinder Avila and Kansas City get a fair price against Ryan Feltner and a Rockies pitching unit surrendering a 1.60 WHIP and .346 BABIP over their last two weeks.
Giants vs Padres: Padres (-122)
Padres win probability: 55%
San Diego is clicking on all cylinders, boasting the second-best offense (138 wRC+, .856 OPS) and second-best bullpen (2.82 SIERA) over the past 14 days. Walker Buehler gets prime run support against Tyler Mahle and a Giants lineup operating below league average (98 wRC+).
Red Sox vs Dodgers: Red Sox (+156)
Red Sox win probability: 39%
With Los Angeles priced at -163, market discipline forces a play on Boston. However, the Red Sox present real analytical value: their pitching staff boasts an MLB-best 1.63 ERA and 3.02 SIERA over the last two weeks. Expect prospect Payton Tolle to compete and beat the Dodgers.
Brewers vs Angels: Brewers (-122)
Brewers win probability: 55%
Milwaukee’s lineup is in form, producing a 110 wRC+ with high-level plate discipline (10.3% BB%). Robert Gasser takes the mound against Jose Soriano and an Angels lineup generating just an 84 wRC+ and a .330 SLG. The Brewers hold the clear edge, and should get over the line.
Tigers vs Athletics: Tigers (-122)
Tigers win probability: 55%
Framber Valdez gives Detroit a major starting pitcher advantage over Jack Perkins. While Detroit’s staff carries regression warnings (4.50 SIERA), the Athletics feature the second-worst underlying pitching profile in MLB with a 4.71 SIERA, 1.88 WHIP, and an 8.19 ERA over their last two weeks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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