MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Saturday, July 18

The All-Star break is officially over, and we have 15 MLB games on Saturday's card to attack. 

I've scoured the MLB odds and the data and have found a 15-game card with several plus-money underdogs and solid favorites to keep us busy throughout the day. 

Read on for my MLB picks for Saturday, July 18. 

MLB moneyline picks for July 18

Matchup	Pick
Twins vs Cubs	+138
White Sox vs Blue Jays	+108
Reds vs Rockies	+108
Mets vs Phillies	+144
Orioles vs Astros	+113
Pirates vs Guardians	+100
Padres vs Royals	+100
Cardinals vs Diamondbacks	-122
Rays vs Red Sox	+108
Rangers vs Braves	+133
Marlins vs Brewers	+122
Giants vs Mariners	+117
Dodgers vs Yankees	-108
Nationals vs Athletics	+100
Tigers vs Angels	+133

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of July 18.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 18

Twins vs Cubs: Twins (+138)

Twins win probability: 42%

At +138, backing the Minnesota Twins is a strict price-first play. Over the last 14 days, Minnesota's bullpen (4.00 SIERA) matches up well against the overpriced Chicago Cubs, making the Twinkies moneyline the only viable way to look on a hot afternoon.

White Sox vs Blue Jays: White Sox (+108)

White Sox win probability: 48%

The Toronto Blue Jays offense has underachieved to a 73 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Meanwhile, the  Chicago White Sox carry an elite, highly underrated bullpen (3.46 SIERA, 27.7% K% over the last two weeks) that provides a massive late-game edge.

Reds vs Rockies: Rockies (+108)

Rockies win probability: 48%

The Colorado Rockies have been the slightly better offense over the last 14 days (102 vs. 95 wRC+). With both bullpens' SIERAs virtually identical over the last two weeks, getting plus-money on the home underdog with the hotter bats against the Cincinnati Reds is the clear value play.

Mets vs Phillies: Mets (+144)

Mets win probability: 41%

The Philadelphia Phillies are heavily overvalued despite a weak 93 wRC+ over the last two weeks. The New York Mets actually possess the superior lineup over the last 14 days (107 wRC+). Grabbing this number on New York’s hotter bats is the way to go today. 

Orioles vs Astros: Orioles (+113)

Orioles win probability: 47%

While the Houston Astros have the starting pitching edge with Spencer Arrighetti on the bump, the Baltimore Orioles bullpen (3.66 SIERA over the last 14 days) is a major weapon. Facing an Astros offense with a mediocre 105 wRC+ over the last two weeks, the Orioles are live dogs.

Pirates vs Guardians: Pirates (+100)

Pirates win probability: 50%

The Pittsburgh Pirates boast a significant offensive advantage over the Cleveland Guardians over the last 14 days (135 wRC+ vs. 95 wRC+). With Braxton Ashcraft starting and a massive gap in the team's recent hitting, getting even money on the far superior offense is the play.

Padres vs Royals: Padres (+100)

Padres win probability: 50%

The Kansas City Royals bullpen is a disaster, ranking dead last with a 4.94 SIERA over the last 14 days. The San Diego Padres offense (106 wRC+ over the last two weeks) should be able to exploit this late-game weakness. At even money, back the Padres.

Cardinals vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-122)

Diamondbacks win probability: 55%

The Arizona Diamondbacks hold a massive edge in relief, posting a league-best 2.93 SIERA over the last 14 days. The St. Louis Cardinals are highly vulnerable late with their anemic 82 wRC+ offense over the last two weeks, making Arizona the better side.

Rays vs Red Sox: Rays (+108)

Rays win probability: 48%

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has been elite over the last 14 days, posting a 2.80 SIERA and 28% K% compared to the Boston Red Sox' 3.80 SIERA is leaking oil. Getting plus-money on the Rays' superior bullpen over the last two weeks makes them a solid underdog choice.

Rangers vs Braves: Rangers (+133)

Rangers win probability: 43%

The Texas Rangers possess a top-5 offense over the last 14 days (118 wRC+), while the Atlanta Braves have fallen to an average 103 wRC+. Backing the better bats over the last two weeks at +133 is a textbook mathematical play.

Marlins vs Brewers: Marlins (+122)

Marlins win probability: 45%

The Miami Marlins boast the absolute best offense on the slate over the last 14 days (149 wRC+), making them a mandatory play. You cannot lay chalk on the Milwaukee Brewers and starter Shane Drohan against a lineup that has been this incredibly lethal over the last two weeks.

Giants vs Mariners: Giants (+117)

Giants win probability: 46%

The Seattle Mariners bullpen is a major regression candidate (4.83 SIERA over the last 14 days despite a 2.70 ERA), and their offense struck out 26.2% of the time over the last two weeks. The disciplined San Francisco Giants (108 wRC+) are the perfect underdog play. 

Dodgers vs Yankees: Dodgers (-108)

Dodgers win probability: 52%

The New York Yankees offense has sunk to a bottom-five 89 wRC+ with a bloated 29.2% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Backing the far more consistent and powerful Los Angeles Dodgers lineup over the last two weeks at near even-money is the logical play.

Nationals vs Athletics: Nationals (+100)

Nationals win probability: 50%

The Washington Nationals have a top-2 offense over the last 14 days (142 wRC+), while the Athletics' pitching is a disaster zone (4.22 bullpen SIERA, 2.03 HR/9 over the last two weeks). Getting even money on one of the league's hottest lineups is hard to let slide by. 

Tigers vs Angels: Angels (+133)

Angels win probability: 43%

Even with Detroit Tigers ace Tariq Skubal pitching, the Los Angeles Angels own the best bullpen in baseball over the last 14 days (2.61 SIERA, 31.2% K%). At +133, backing the elite LAA relief core over the last two weeks at home is pure value.

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