The weekend is officially here, and tonight's MLB slate is loaded.
Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props, best bets, and MLB picks to attack on Friday, July 17th.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Brandon Lowe |
Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI | +100 |
 Merrill Kelly |
Over 2.5 Earned Runs | -112 |
 Mickey Moniak |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | -140 |
Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+100)
Getting Pittsburgh Pirates slugger Brandon Lowe's over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI at plus money is a steal. I do not care how cold he's been over his last few games before the break.
He owns an 81% arsenal coverage against Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams and carries incredible elite-rated trends on Batters-Box.
Across the last three seasons, in 42 elite-rated road matchups, Lowe has recorded:
-
1+ Hit: 90.48%
-
Home Run: 30.9%
-
2+ HRR: 71.34%
-
3+ HRR: 52.38%
He's also cleared this prop in seven of his last ten elite-rated road matchups.
Williams hasn't fared well against left-handed hitters, as the last 60 he's faced own a .314 xBA and .437 xSLG. Those aren't the flashiest numbers you'll ever see, but the plus money and the trends Lowe has maintained in elite spots are simply too good to pass up.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEG, SNP
Merrill Kelly Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-112)
Big day to back the data and attack horrible arms, as Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly is set to take the bump this evening.
Kelly is the worst-rated pitcher on Batters-Box's current season dataset tonight, as he draws a fully elite-rated St. Louis Cardinals offense featuring five elite-rated bats and two with strong ratings.
The Cardinals own a .39 rating in the default ratings, which is simply a favorable matchup. With that rating, they score 3+ runs 79% of the time, 4+ runs 56% of the time, and 5+ runs 46% of the time.
These trends go back three seasons and cover a full game, but the data is based solely on the starting pitcher.
At home this season, Kelly sports a 6.04 ERA, 8.20 xERA, and 1.55 WHIP. On top of that, opposing hitters are generating a 52.63% hard hit rate and a 22.11% barrel rate against him.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ARID, CARD
Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Out of the six elite-rated Colorado Rockies in this matchup, Mickey Moniak stands out from the rest. Not only does he have an elite rating, but he also has 66% arsenal coverage against Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer.
In 17 elite ratings at home, Moniak has surpassed this prop 58.82% of the time. If you want to chase value by taking his alt line of 2.5 hits, runs, and RBI, he does go over that mark 47% of the time.
On the other side, Singer has struggled against left-handed hitters on the road, allowing a 38.45% hard hit rate and a 65.1% elevation rate. Meanwhile, lefties own a .333 BA, .507 SLG, and .387 wOBA against him.
Overall, in Singer's last three starts, he owns a 4.92 xERA while allowing nearly 50% hard contact and a 10.64% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
With Singer being primarily a breaking ball pitcher, I don't expect his stuff to be at its best in Coors Field, giving Moniak the advantage in this matchup.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, CINR
- Prop picks: 303-565, -7.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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