Full Slate Friday has arrived, which means the weekend is officially here.
I have put together my thoughts for every matchup on tonight's slate, so without further ado, here are my MLB moneyline predictions for every game on the board.
See what teams need to be on your MLB picks on Friday, July 31!
MLB moneyline picks for July 31
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Yankeesvs  Cubs |
-144 |
 Piratesvs  Reds |
+117 |
 Philliesvs  Orioles |
-111 |
 Cardinalsvs  Blue Jays |
+160 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Guardians |
-130 |
 White Soxvs  Rays |
-135 |
 Marlinsvs  Mets |
+117 |
 Nationalsvs  Braves |
+108 |
 Rangersvs  Astros |
+115 |
 Royalsvs  Rockies |
-104 |
 Brewersvs  Angels |
-156 |
 Tigersvs  Athletics |
-133 |
 Giantsvs  Padres |
+135 |
 Red Soxvs  Dodgers |
-115 |
 Twinsvs  Mariners |
+160 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of July 31.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 31
Yankees vs Cubs: Cubs (-144)
Cubs win probability: 59%
If you've been following these daily moneyline articles, first off, thank you. Second, you know I'm usually not a fan of laying juice on moneylines. That said, I want no part of the Yankees right now. The way they've played over the last few days has been flat-out pathetic, from the mental mistakes to the sloppy baseball.
Plus, Will Warren has a 7.50 ERA over his last five starts, and the offense has a 67 wRC+.
Give me the Cubs.
Pirates vs Reds: Reds (+117)
Reds win probability: 46%
Phillies vs Orioles: Orioles (-111)
Orioles win probability: 52%
The Phillies have been an ice-cold mess over the past week, posting just an 87 wRC+, .299 wOBA, and .672 OPS over their last six games. The Orioles have not been much better offensively during that stretch, but Brandon Young has quietly been pitching really well. Across his last three starts, he owns a 2.21 ERA, 2.91 xERA, and 1.03 WHIP.
In a matchup between two cold offenses, I'll gladly back the pitcher who has been throwing the ball better.
Give me the Birds.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays: Cardinals (+160)
Cardinals win probability: 38%
Diamondbacks vs Guardians: Guardians (-130)
Guardians win probability: 56%
With Mitch Bratt posting a 7.11 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, and a 14% walk rate over his last three starts, I want no part of backing the Diamondbacks tonight. On the other side, Tanner Bibee has started to turn things around, posting a 2.89 ERA across his last three outings.
The Guardians offense has been dormant, while Arizona has finally started to come back down to earth after its scorching two week stretch at the plate.
I'll simply side with the hotter arm in this one.
White Sox vs Rays: Rays (-135)
Rays win probability: 57%
It is hard for me to look at what Nick Martinez has done over his last three starts and want to fade him. During that stretch, he owns a 0.69 ERA, 1.64 xERA, and 0.85 WHIP.
The White Sox have also looked shaky this past week against the Yankees, and now they hand the ball to Eric Fedde, who owns a 5.40 ERA on the road this season.
Give me the Rays.
Marlins vs Mets: Marlins (+117)
Marlins win probability: 46%
Nationals vs Braves: Nationals (+108)
Nationals win probability: 48%
We're getting plus money with one of the hottest offenses in baseball and one of its best arms on the mound. On the other side is Bryce Elder, who owns a 5.97 xERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts.
The Braves offense has also cooled off considerably, posting just a 72 wRC+, .274 wOBA, and .610 OPS over its last six games.
I'll gladly take the hotter lineup at plus money.
Give me the most electrifying offense in baseball.
Rangers vs Astros: Rangers (+115)
Rangers win probability: 46%
Hunter Brown has looked better over his last three starts, but I think Nathan Eovaldi is in the better spot tonight. The Rangers offense has been on an absolute tear over its last 21 games. Sure, the strikeout rate is a bit elevated, but they're also carrying a 120 wRC+, .342 wOBA, and .782 OPS during that stretch.
The Astros have been swinging it well too, but I have more concerns with their bullpen, and I'm not convinced Brown has completely turned the corner.
Royals vs Rockies: Royals (-104)
Royals win probability: 50%
Real quick and easy here: Tomoyuki Sugano is on the mound for the Rockies, and their offense is completely frozen.
That's really all I need.
If you want a little more, Michael Wacha has been very solid in his recent starts, while the Royals offense has continued to generate plenty of hard contact. This feels like a great spot for Kansas City to do some damage at Coors.
Brewers vs Angels: Brewers (-156)
Brewers win probability: 61%
Pay the juice. The Brewers are worth it.
Shane Drohan's underlying metrics over his last five starts have been outstanding, posting a 3.00 xERA while walking just 4.84% of opposing hitters. He also draws a favorable matchup against an Angels lineup that owns just an 89 wRC+, .297 wOBA, and .651 OPS over its last 12 games.
On the other side, Ryan Johnson enters with a 7.34 ERA on the season, and this Brewers offense has been mashing all year. With the way Milwaukee has been swinging the bats, this feels like another spot where they put up runs.
Pay the juice.
Tigers vs Athletics: Tigers (-135)
Tigers win probability: 57%
The Tigers are not my favorite team to back because of their inconsistency, but this feels like a spot where I have to side with the Kitties. The Athletics have gone ice cold, and Jeffrey Springs has been getting shelled, posting an 8.86 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and allowing a 10.67% barrel rate over his last five starts.
On the other side, Casey Mize has been nails, recording a 2.20 ERA, 2.66 xERA, and 0.84 WHIP across his last five outings.
It is Tigers or nothing for me in this one.
Giants vs Padres: Giants (+135)
Giants win probability: 42%
Death. Taxes. Fade Germán Márquez.
Márquez has been a disaster at home this season, posting a 7.36 ERA, 5.83 xERA, and 1.77 WHIP. Luckily for us, the Giants offense has started to find its groove, owning a 114 wRC+, .329 wOBA, and .741 OPS over its last 21 games.
There is simply no chance I'm laying juice against a lineup this hot with Germán Márquez on the mound.
Red Sox vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-115)
Dodgers win probability: 54%
I completely understand that Ranger Suárez and the Red Sox have been rolling and continue to find ways to win, but getting the Dodgers at just -115 is a price I am not passing up.
Especially with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound.
What?!
Give me the Dodgers.
Twins vs Mariners: Twins (+160)
Twins win probability: 38%
Sure, the Twins are coming off a massive walk-off win yesterday, but nothing is going to convince me to lay -163 with this Mariners team.
I know Zebby Matthews has struggled on the road this season, sporting a 7.58 ERA away from home. But Bryce Miller has not been much better over his last three starts, and Seattle's offense has been ice cold for weeks.
At this price, I'll happily grab the heavy underdog.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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