MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Sunday, August 31

Shohie Ohtani is running away with the NL MVP, and he'll add to his HR total this afternoon vs. Arizona.

Tony Sartori - Contributor at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Aug 31, 2025 • 09:43 ET • 4 min read
Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Ohtani sends a pitch to the moon.

There's a full 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, and the MLB player props market is loaded with home run value.

Shohei Ohtani has caught my eye, but I like two other players to lead the yard on August 31.

Best MLB home run props today

  • TEAM Shohei Ohtani (+170)
  • TEAM Matt Olson (+425)
  • TEAM Marcell Ozuna (+475)
  • 💲 +6650 parlay💲

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HR Prop #1: Shohei Ohtani

+170 at DraftKings

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the afternoon portion of Sunday’s MLB slate. Los Angeles’ Shohei Ohtani looks to run away with the NL MVP as the season comes to a close.

This year, Ohtani ranks in the 99th percentile or higher in expected slugging (xSLG), average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Subsequently, he ranks second in the National League in home runs.

That success is likely to continue against Brandon Pfaadt, who takes the mound for Arizona. Through 12 plate appearances against Pfaadt, Ohtani boasts a .583 slugging percentage with one home run.

HR Prop #2: Matt Olson

+425 at DraftKings

ESPN’s “Sunday Night Baseball” features the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Atlanta Braves. Southpaw Jesús Luzardo gets the ball for Philadelphia, and he should serve as a good fade candidate.

Through 27 appearances this season, Luzardo owns a 4.23 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Atlanta’s Matt Olson is likely to take advantage.

Olson has previously homered against Luzardo and has gone yard in two of his past four games.

HR Prop #3: Marcell Ozuna

+475 at DraftKings

Another Braves hitter to consider Sunday is Marcell Ozuna. Possessing a strong track record against Luzardo, Ozuna boasts a .625 slugging percentage and .694 xSLG through 16 plate appearances. He's hit one home run over that stretch.

Luzardo has struggled recently, surrendering seven home runs over his past eight starts. He also owns a 4.43 ERA during that span.

Today’s HR parlay

Shohei Ohtani

Matt Olson

Marcell Ozuna

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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