While college football may have stolen the story on Saturday evening, at least some of the sports world will be turning its attention to tonight’s MLB matchup featuring the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies.
Jesus Luzardo leads the way tonight for me as I break down my Sunday Night Baseball player props and Braves vs. Phillies predictions on Sunday, August 31.
Braves vs Phillies Sunday Night Baseball props
Luzardo o6.5 Ks (+125)
Waldrep u15.5 outs (-141)- Harper o1.5 TB (+105)
Double your winnings for 10 separate bets at Caesars
Sign up for a Caesars account — using our exclusive promo code BASEBALLDYW — and get 10x profit boost tokens worth 100% each!
Register now to collect your Double your winning tokens, or learn more with our comprehensive Caesars Sportsbook review.
Prop #1: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 strikeouts
Jesus Luzardo has picked it up lately. His most recent start against the New York Mets notwithstanding (one in which he allowed four earned runs), Luzardo has exceeded this strikeout number in two of his last three outings and has gone six innings in every start in August, and can replicate that success here.
My projection comes in right around 6.7 strikeouts, but the pitch mix leans heavily in his favor. Luzardo’s slider and changeup have generated swing-and-miss rates near the top of the league, and both play well against the Atlanta Braves’ whiff-prone bats.
Prop #2: Hurston Waldrep Under 15.5 outs
Even at a -141 line, there is value in this number because I am concerned about how deep Hurston Waldrep can go with his pitching arsenal, as many Philadelphia Phillies players match up well against it. There’s also the matter of the approach at the plate.
The Phillies rank in the Top 5 in pitches per plate appearance, which drives up pitch counts quickly. Waldrep’s walk rate and tendency to get into long counts are obviously not conducive to length. That leads to two very obvious scenarios where Waldrep is run from this game quickly: he either has long, high-stress innings or he simply gets hit hard.
Prop #3: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
Bryce Harper has the most favorable matchup against Waldrep, so it’s no wonder it’s my favorite prop of the group.
Waldrep leans heavily on his cutter and split-finger, and Harper ranks among the Phillies' three best hitters in production against both. That combination has led to consistent hard contact and slugging when he sees these pitches, and the lefty-friendly dimensions of Citizens Bank Park only add to the appeal. Harper’s approach means he’ll get pitches to hit, as Waldrep simply doesn’t walk batters. I like him to take advantage of it.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
