Thanks to some wet weather, the Subway Series between the New York Yankees and New York Mets will have a doubleheader on Sunday with Game 1 featuring arguably the day’s best pitching matchup.
The AL Cy Young frontrunner, Gerrit Cole, will face Marcus Stroman, who is working through some things and has lasted just four innings over his last two starts. The Mets took the first game of the series yesterday 8-3 thanks to some solid starting pitching from Taijuan Walker.
Cole and the Yankees opened as -175 favorites in the seven-inning game with the total hitting a flat 6 but trending down.
Here are our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Yankees on July 4.
Mets vs Yankees game info
• Location: Yankee Stadium, New York City, NY
• Date: Sunday, July 4, 2021
• Time: 2:05 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, WPIX
Mets vs Yankees odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonA Subway Series Fourth of July doubleheader opens with this 2:05 p.m. ET clash, in which TwinSpires opened the Yankees -175, stretched to -185 and is -177 at 12:45 p.m. ET. The Pinstripes are drawing 56 percent of moneyline tickets and 64 percent of moneyline dollars. The total opened at 5.5 (Over -115) and moved a few cents to Over -121, with 60 percent of tickets/63 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMets vs Yankees betting preview
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman (6-6, 2.44 ERA): Stroman is sporting a legit 2.45 ERA but the HDMH pitcher is currently dealing with some stuff. Two starts ago he exited after one inning with hip soreness but an MRI ultimately came back clean. He followed that up with a three-inning start where he gave up four runs. Between then and Sunday’s start he also hit the bereavement list. He is a true wild card in Game 1 of the doubleheader.
Gerrit Cole (8-4, 2.66 ERA): Cole is still a -200 favorite to win the AL Cy Young but is also coming off a brutal start where he allowed six runs over five innings. Cole is another pitcher who may be affected by spin rates as his strikeouts per game are down slightly and he saw his ERA jump from 1.78 to 2.66 in the month of June.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Jonathan Villar SS (Probable), J.D. Davis 1B (Out).
Yankees: Clint Frazier OF (Questionable), Zack Britton RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Cole’s last four starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees.
Runline pick
Some inclement weather has turned the final two games of the Subway Series into a doubleheader, and both the Mets and Yankees could use some victories. Cole will try to get the Yankees back in the win column after the club has dropped six of its last seven games and now sits fourth in the AL East Division. The offense managed just three hits yesterday in an 8-3 loss and had just two runners in scoring position all game.
The Yankees sit outside the Top 20 in runs scored over the last 14 days and even though they’re sixth in the league in home runs, this team is struggling to score by other means as it ranks 19th in hits per game. However, a big showing in Game 1 against a struggling Stroman and a weak Mets offense could get the Bombers back in the win column.
Stroman could be one bad inning away from taking some time off. The righty left a game two starts ago because of a hip issue and then struggled in his follow-up start. He has just three strikeouts over his last two starts and shouldn’t be trusted until he proves he's healthy.
Offensively, the Mets have underachieved to this point in the season. Only one player has more than nine home runs while prized acquisition Francisco Lindor is hitting just .217. They hit a ton of balls on the ground and are in the Bottom 10 in hard-hit percentage. Cole’s spin rates may be down, but he's still elite and should be able to go up and down this Mets’ lineup.
There's a good chance that Cole could go the distance as seven of his 15 starts this year have gone seven innings or longer.
With Stroman being a massive question mark, we’re rolling with the home side on the runline in this seven-inning event.
PREDICTION: Yankees -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under pick
These teams have big-name appeal but their offenses have underwhelmed in 2021. Both clubs sit in the Bottom 10 in hard-hit balls and fly ball percentage, and in the Top 10 in soft-hit balls and groundball percentage. And the Yankees have the third-lowest line drive percentage. Neither of these clubs has hit the ball hard this year and it’s a big reason why both have been profitable to the Under.
With the Stro-Show working through some things, we’d expect that there is a contingency plan in place if he struggles early. The Mets have a decent bullpen that ranks 10th in WAR and has a 3.92 ERA, and the group should be able to put out any fires that Stroman possibly starts. Jeurys Familia and Drew Smith were perfect in their three innings of relief yesterday, allowing no runners and striking out five.
We feel comfortable with Cole keeping the Mets’ bats at bay and if the bullpen does need to come in, it will be fully rested after the mop-up crew pitched yesterday.
The weather looks calm with a near-still wind (3 mph) blowing across Yankee Stadium with low humidity. This total will likely hit 5.5 by game time but is available at 6 on plenty of books.
PREDICTION: Under 6 (-120)
Mets vs Yankees betting card
- Yankees -1.5 (+125)
- Under 6 (-120)
Picks made on 7/04/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET
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