The Philadelphia Phillies go for a three-game sweep over the San Diego Padres when the two meet at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday.
Vince Velasquez will look to build off his best start of the season while the Padres counter with Blake Snell, who returns to the mound after an illness forced him to miss a start.
Will San Diego find a way to get in the win column this series? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Phillies on July 4.
Padres vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Sunday, July 4, 2021
• Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports San Diego, NBCSP
Padres vs Phillies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonSan Diego opened a -132 favorite Saturday evening at FanDuel, with Philadelphia +112 on the buyback, and the moneyline remains there at noon ET Sunday. The Padres are attracting 69 percent of bets and 77 percent of dollars. The total opened at 9 flat (-110), briefly got to 9.5 (Under -120) overnight and is now 9 (Over -115), with the Over landing 59 percent of bets/66 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePadres vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Blake Snell (3-3, 5.29 ERA): Snell was a big acquisition for this Padres team, but he got off to a pretty rocky start to his season. Fortunately for San Diego, the lefty has gotten it going as of late. Outside of a start in which he gave up seven earned runs at Coors Field on June 16, Snell was dealing last month. He pitched five scoreless innings in a 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last trip to the mound, and he had given up just three earned runs over 11 innings in his two starts before that Coors Field abomination.
Vince Velasquez (3-2, 4.22 ERA): Velasquez was dominant in his last trip to the hill, pitching seven innings of shutout baseball and striking out seven in a win over the Miami Marlins. The only problem is that the righty had given up 18 earned runs over 20 1-3 innings in his five previous starts. You really just don’t know what you’re going to get out of Velasquez this season, but the good news for Philadelphia is that he is 2-0 when pitching at home.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Jurickson Profar OF (Questionable), Austin Nola C (Out), Keone Kela RP (Out).
Phillies: None.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-2 in Philadelphia’s last seven Sunday games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies.
Moneyline pick
Bettors that look at MLB odds pretty often aren’t used to seeing Snell as this small of a favorite, but that’s kind of the way this season has gone for him.
The lefty just hasn’t been all that impressive in San Diego thus far, and it’s the road struggles that have plagued him. Snell is 3-0 with a 1.43 ERA at home on the year, but he is 0-3 with a 10.36 ERA on the road. With that, it’s hard to imagine him not having some issues in this one. Snell is facing a Phillies team that is rock solid against left-handed pitching. Keep an eye on Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins here. Both are at their best against lefties.
On the other side, Velasquez might not be perfect but one thing to keep in mind is that he has held his own against some of San Diego’s best hitters. Tommy Pham, Manny Machado, and Eric Hosmer are a combined 4-for 19-against the righty.
If Velasquez can keep them in line and also prevent Fernando Tatis Jr. from going deep, the Phillies will have a great chance at winning this game. And regardless of whether or not this result is a guarantee, the Phillies are just the better value play in this game.
PREDICTION: Phillies (+112)
Over/Under pick
The first two games in this series went Under the total, but this one should feature some more runs.
Not only does Snell have a 10.36 ERA on the road this season, but the Phillies are in the top half of the league in batting average, home runs, and RBIs against left-handed pitching. On top of that, it’s not often that Velasquez shuts opposing lineups down and he is coming off a game in which he did just that. That means that a reality check is likely coming for the righty, so don’t be surprised if he gives up three or four here.
With the way Snell is pitching, Velasquez can do that and still walk away with a win.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (-114)
Padres vs Phillies betting card
- Phillies (+112)
- Over 9 (-114)
Picks made on 7/03/2021 at 10:54 p.m. ET
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