It's a busy Sunday of MLB betting action on the Fourth of July.
There are a number of pitchers we expect to bring the fireworks today, including Anthony DeSclafani in a plus matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, as well Patrick Sandoval, who will look to build off a strong June that saw him generate plenty of swings and misses. There's another struggling pitcher, though, who we are expecting to get shelled in one of baseball's most unforgiving environments.
Check out all our favorite MLB prop bets and predictions for Sunday, July 4.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Carlos Martinez Over 3.5 Earned Runs (-120)
The Cardinals right-hander is coming off a strong start in which he allowed one run and punched out six over six innings but it came against the Diamondbacks, who have a terrible offense and are baseball's worst team.
Martinez allowed five-plus earned runs in four of his other five starts in June and carries a 6.38 ERA into Sunday's tilt against the Colorado Rockies — at Coors Field. The Rockies have a .814 OPS at Coors, which is the second-best home mark in MLB.
Martinez isn't missing bats this year, walks too many guys, and puts himself into too many situations where things can turn sideways in a hurry. There's absolutely no way to trust him in this ballpark.
Patrick Sandoval Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
The Angels lefty has worked into the sixth inning in three of his last four starts and eclipsed this prop total three times in June. He punched out a career-high 10 batters against the Mariners on June 6, followed it up with a nine-strikeout performance two starts later, and he fanned six in his last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Sandoval has one of the highest whiff percentages in baseball, missing plenty of bats with his changeup and slider which have been strong putaway pitches for him the last two seasons. His 55.9 whiff rate on his changeup is the second-best mark in baseball behind Corbin Burnes, and no team is worse at handling changeups than the Baltimore Orioles, according to FanGraphs' pitch value leaderboard.
We like Sandoval to take advantage of that and have success in the strikeout department against an Orioles club that has the ninth-highest K rate in baseball over the last 30 days.
Anthony DeSclafani - Pitcher to Record the Win - Yes (+170)
The Giants will look to make it three in a row against the last-place Diamondbacks and win this four-game set at Chase Field. And they have the right guy on the mound to help them do that.
DeSclafani is enjoying the best season of his career, posting personal-best stats across a number of categories, including ERA (2.91), WHIP (1.03), and opponents' batting average (.202). He has allowed more than three runs in just one of his 16 starts and finished June with a 1.69 ERA across his five outings.
The struggling Diamondbacks don't present him with a tough test. They have very little pop, ranking second-last in the majors in home runs and 27th in ISO, which measures how often hits go for extra bases. Only three teams have a lower OPS than their mark of .678 and they've won just four of their last 30 games.
While pitcher wins can be a dicey prop to bet on, the heavily favored Giants should win this game and DeSclafani's performance will likely be a big reason behind that. He has factored into the decision in five straight games, winning four of them, including a June 16 start against this very same D-backs team when he held them to two runs over five innings.
There's good value here at +170.
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MLB betting card for July 4
- Carlos Martinez Over 3.5 Earned Runs (-120)
- Patrick Sandoval Over 5.5 strikeouts (+110)
- Anthony DeSclafani - Pitcher to Record the Win - Yes (+170)
Picks made on 7/4/2021 at 12:10 p.m. ET
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