Mets vs Pirates Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game

After one of the most unexpected losing streaks of the season, the New York Mets appear to be back on track after scoring two solid wins over the Atlanta Braves at home on Wednesday and Thursday.

They now get the benefit of a softer opponent over the weekend in the Pittsburgh Pirates, as they’ll take on a Bucs team that is 18 games under .500 and has struggled to support some of its outstanding pitchers due to being one of the weakest offensive squads in the league.

That offense is going to have a hard time getting on track tonight against David Peterson. The New York lefty has come into his own over the past two years, following up an excellent 2024 campaign by going 5-3 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP so far this season.

Peterson has struggled in his last two outings, allowing eight runs over 11 innings of work, but that’s coming off one of the few complete-game shutout performances in the league this year.

Unfortunately for the Pirates, they have especially struggled against southpaws. The team is hitting just .215 with a .278 OPS against lefthanded pitching, below its already subpar performance against righties. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a single regular with an OPS of .750 or higher, and there simply aren’t a lot of hard outs in the lineup, with not a single position player on the team having a WAR higher than 1.0.

Pirates SP Mitch Keller has a hard luck 1-10 record to go along with a 4.02 ERA, with a 3.24 FIP that suggests those numbers won’t last forever. But the Pirates have lost five straight starts when Keller has taken the mound.

Keller has only one truly bad start in that stretch, but it turns out that even allowing 2+ runs on a regular basis makes it hard to get wins when you pitch for Pittsburgh. The Pirates haven’t scored more than two runs in a game Keller has started since May 2, a stretch of nine starts that includes a 2-1 loss to the Mets back on May 13.

Along with taking the Mets to win tonight, I’m also backing the Under in my same-game parlay.

I love the way Peterson has developed into a top-tier lefthanded starter, and a couple of shakier starts isn’t going to change my opinion of him. Against a Pittsburgh team that is averaging a paltry 3.26 runs per game, I expect Peterson to keep the Pirates in check and help keep the total below 8.5 runs.

The Mets should get some runs on the board, however, and I’m taking Juan Soto to score at least once tonight.

Soto has scored 60 runs for the Mets already this year, and has now scored in four straight games and five of his last six.

He’ll likely get on base multiple times, after which his New York teammates should be able to knock him in at least once against Keller and the Pirates bullpen.