MLB Picks

Warren is just as prone to being blown up as Pérez. The fastball velocity is elite, but real issues appear if you can get him off it. He comes off a 2.08 ERA start, but an expected ERA north of 4 hints at the underlying problems.

The Miami Marlins may not have to do much to push this over if the New York bats show up, too.

It is simply not a problem you want to have when heading to Yankee Stadium for the New York Yankees home opener. This team has ranked in the top five in hard-hit rate and barrel rate over five consecutive seasons. Perez will lean on his elite strikeout stuff and have some success, but eventually, a deep power lineup will tee off.

The San Diego Padres face Sonny Gray today, and Machado is very familiar with him. He’s 12-for-35 lifetime with three long balls. 15 of Machado’s homers last season were off righties, and Gray’s lone HR allowed this year was against a right-handed hitter. 

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to drop to the 3rd-lowest level on the slate today at 55°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. As it relates to his batting average, Wilyer Abreu has been lucky since the start of last season. His .257 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .230.

Anchored by rising stars Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, the Reds lead the majors in exit velocity while ranking fifth in barrel rate. Today they take on Texas and Mackenzie Gore who generates strikes but gives up too much hard contact. The lefty was in the 20th percentile in barrel rate and exit velocity last year while posting a 4.33 xERA. Reds starter Brady Singer had an almost identical 4.27 xERA last and he allowed three runs in four innings in his 2026 debut. I don't trust him to navigate a Rangers lineup that is sixth in the majors in runs per game (5.33) and third in hard-hit rate.

Josh Jung is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.. The #1 venue in baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. Brady Singer will hold the platoon advantage against Josh Jung in today's matchup... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Singer's huge platoon split.. Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

There’s a compelling case for the Under, which was a winning ticket in four of the last five meetings between these teams – and in all three of Cleveland’s matchups with the defending champs in L.A. this week, including a 4-1 victory on Wednesday.

With two quality starters on the mound, don’t count on the scoring getting out of hand, especially as the Guardians have a batting average of .189 through their first seven games. The hosts should have the hot bat of Chase DeLauter available again this afternoon, but I see Horton putting the clamps on Jose Ramirez and Co.

If you’re looking for a free-scoring offense, the Cubs are a good pick. They finished fifth in runs scored in 2025 and, boosted by Alex Bregman’s arrival, they’ve piled up 30 runs through their opening six contests this year. It also helps that Cade Horton is taking the ball today. He’s posted a 1.75 ERA across his past five starts, including a steady effort in his first outing of 2026.

Chicago swept Cleveland when the teams squared off last summer, with Horton pitching seven scoreless innings in one of those victories, and it’s easier to trust the visitors’ lineup here.

Getting the YRFI at -120 in a game at Coors Field is a bargain and today's pitching matchup suggests we'll get plenty of runs. Phillies righty Aaron Nola is coming off his worst season as a pro (6.01 ERA over 17 starts) and allowed five runs in five innings in his first outing this year. Colorado is giving the pill to Michael Lorenzon who surrendered seven hits and three runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. Lorenzon had a 4.64 ERA with Kansas City last year and his subpar ground ball rate and exit velocity suggest he'll struggle at Coors. Especially against a hard-hitting Phillies lineup with some big bats at the top of the order. 

Schwarber already has two homers this season, and he's 9-for-24 lifetime with two bombs against Michael Lorenzen. The slugger also left the yard twice at Coors Field in 2025. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.. Junior Caminero has hit one of the hardest balls in MLB in the last two weeks — 116.9-mph — which is a favorable indicator of recent form and raw power.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Bailey Ober throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures of all games today at 81°.. Colton Cowser will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Keller today.. Among all the teams playing today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 12th-best home run hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the highest temperatures of all games today at 81°.. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Bradish throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an advantage in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 11th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Chad Patrick will have the handedness advantage over Salvador Perez in today's matchup.. In today's game, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.9% rate (94th percentile).. Typically, batters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Chad Patrick.. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.

Jonathan India is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game.. The deepest LF dimensions in the majors are found in Kauffman Stadium.. Hitting from the same side that Chad Patrick throws from, Jonathan India will have a tough matchup in today's game.. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.. Jonathan India has been cold in recent games, posting a 77.9-mph average exit velocity over the past week.

The  Mariners mashed away from home last season, posting 5.09 runs per game. Expect that same production as they begin their first road trip this year. The M's retained Josh Naylor while adding leadoff man Brendan Donovan to a lineup anchored by MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena. They'll have success against Angels lefty Reid Detmers who has been shaky as a starter and is better out of the bullpen. Detmers didn't make a single start last year but had a 6.70 ERA in 17 starts in 2024. He started last Saturday and gave up three runs in 4 2/3 frames. 

Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.. Reid Detmers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brendan Donovan in today's matchup.. Brendan Donovan has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brendan Donovan in today's matchup.. This season, there has been a decline in Brendan Donovan's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.55 ft/sec last year to 24.34 ft/sec currently.

Yordan Alvarez looks like his old self and is now hitting .417 with a 1.480 OPS, three dingers and six RBIs for the season. He also has reverse splits vs. left-handed pitchers, so don't worry about the matchup vs. Springs.

Langeliers leads the big leagues in home runs with five, and he's gone deep in all but two games so far. The Athletics face Cristian Javier tonight, who allowed two bombs in his season debut. 

Arizona could also score some runs against Atlanta starter Grant Holmes. His fastball's effectiveness was in the bottom 8% of pitchers last year, and he struggled giving up hard-hit balls and walking too many batters.

Holmes took a loss in his first start of the year, giving up seven baserunners and three runs in five innings to the Royals. He's allowed nine runs in nine innings in two career starts against Arizona.

The Braves are hitting better against southpaws (.286/.392/.476) than right-handers (.279/.347/.459) this season. 

Three Atlanta players have a career OPS over 1.000 against Rodriguez, and Matt Olson (.971) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (.833) just missed.

Juan Soto is 4-for-11 with a double and two dingers in his career vs. Tyler Mahle, good for a .338 expected batting average and a .976 expected slugging.

These two offenses have had a slow start to the season, and a matchup at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park likely results in a low-scoring game. 

The Giants have an 80 wRC+ en route to a 2-3-2 O/U record, while the Mets have an 88 wRC+ and are 2-5 O/U. 

Both bullpens have a SIERA under 3.90 and have most of their best arms well-rested. They’re throwing behind starting pitchers projected to have an ERA below 4.00 this season.