The New York Mets will try to continue their strong play during a tough stretch on their schedule as they visit the San Diego Padres to open a four-game series.
Dylan Cease gets the ball for San Diego tonight, and I’ll break down how that heavily favors the home team in my Mets vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, August 22.
Mets vs Padres prediction
My best bet
Padres -1.5 (+140 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The New York Mets are coming off taking two of three from a strong Orioles team, wins they desperately needed to stay in the playoff race. However, things get no easier this weekend as they visit Southern California, starting with a matchup against the 28-year-old Dylan Cease.
In his first year with the San Diego Padres, Cease has continued to shine, going 12-9 with a 3.46 ERA. He has put up a career-best WHIP (1.025), thanks in large part to improved control. Nobody is going to accuse Cease of having pinpoint accuracy, but he’s down to throwing just three walks per nine innings, another career-best mark.
Cease has only improved as the Padres try to make a run at the Dodgers in the NL West standings. Over his last seven starts, Cease is 5-1 with a sterling 1.37 ERA, holding opposing batters to a .117 average and .416 OPS over that span. When you treat entire opposing lineups like pitchers — back when they were allowed to hit — you’re going to win a lot of games.
Meanwhile, Luis Severino is just 3-4 with a 4.96 ERA since the start of July. Take out his two starts against Miami, and that ERA balloons to an astronomical 7.42 over that span.
The Padres are deadly against right-handed pitching, hitting .272 against righties. They’re lined up to do great against Severino, while the Mets have a tough task facing Cease.
I’m not only picking the Padres to win, as I ultimately expect San Diego to cover the run line.
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Mets vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres -1.5
Over 7.5
Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts
I’m taking the Padres to cover the run line, and pairing that with the Over. With the total at a modest 7.5 runs and the Padres offense hitting well as of late, 8+ runs is a very manageable target tonight.
Cease should have a good night for San Diego, but he hasn’t struck out more than six batters in any of his last four starts. That’s why I’m taking him to come in Under his total of 7.5 strikeouts tonight. It’s a counterintuitive play, but if Cease keeps up that streak, it could mean a big payday on this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Padres odds
Mets vs Padres live odds
Mets vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +1.5 (-180) | San Diego -1.5 (+150)
- Run line: New York +125 | San Diego -150
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)
Mets vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Padres have been a strong moneyline team for bettors this year, winning about seven units. The Mets are close to dead even for backers in 2024.
- San Diego has gone 16-10 in Cease’s starts this year, while New York has a 12-12 record with Severino on the mound.
- The Over has done well for both teams this year, going 69-57 in Padres games and 64-59 when the Mets play.
- New York is playing to a total of 9.33 runs per game, with San Diego’s average total coming in at 9.02 runs.
Mets vs Padres trend
San Diego is 6-1 in Cease’s last seven starts, winning each of those games by at least three runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.
Mets vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-22-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet New York, SDPA |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (8-6, 3.91 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (12-9, 3.46 ERA) |
Mets vs Padres latest injuries
Mets vs Padres weather
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