MLB Picks

Behind a struggling Matthews is a fatigued bullpen with no available lefties – and the Tigers are crushing right-handed pitching.

The Twins are also well positioned to score against Keider Montero, who has posted a 5.31 xFIP over the last 30 days while allowing fly balls at a higher rate than any of today’s projected starters.

Bet to -115.

Let's lean into the getaway angle today. This is one of the few games on the board where both teams are traveling, which is why it's an afternoon start and could lead to weaker lineups than usual. Miami heads north to Pittsburgh tomorrow, while Arizona opens a series against Cincinnati on Friday. Arizona put up a donut last night, and while the Fish scored eight runs, six of those came in a single fourth inning. I trust both bullpens, and the Diamondbacks should need to use some relief arms today, which could result in high-leverage relievers working in non-high-leverage spots.
Let's hope for some quick at-bats and getaway-day baseball.

Kauffman Stadium is hot and humid today with 18-mph winds blowing out to center field. The Royals get Kumar Rocker, who appears to be outperforming his underlying numbers. His HR/FB rate is roughly half of what it was last season despite carrying a worse groundball rate. He saw Kansas City two starts ago and pitched well, but the familiarity edge shifts to the Royals hitters in today's rematch. Jac Caglianone is swinging the fastest bat on the Royals over the last two weeks and at a top-10 rate in all of baseball. The bat speed is turning into production, as he has three home runs over that stretch while slugging a team-best .737. Only 15 players in baseball have posted a better slugging percentage than Caglianone over the last 14 days. His price is still longer than some of the bigger-name Royals bats, but based on recent form and the underlying metrics, Caglianone at +450 or better is the best way to take advantage of the wind, heat, and pitching matchup.

The Cubs have the third-lowest BABIP in baseball despite ranking 10th in hard-hit rate and 14th in squared up contact rate during their 7-22 slide, so statistical correction is coming, and I’m particularly expecting an increase to their 3.2 runs per game during the skid. This should also prove to be a favorable matchup, too. Rockies righty Ryan Feltner checks in with 5.69 xERA alongside a target-worthy 18.5% blast contact rate.

Mitch Keller is one of the better home run targets in the late games tonight. He has been especially vulnerable to left-handed hitters, who account for 68% of his home runs allowed since 2024. The wind is blowing out to left field at 10 mph, which fits Freddie Freeman's profile, as only 12.2% of his balls in play are pulled. Freeman is 9-for-18 lifetime vs. Keller, with one dinger, has three four-baggers over the last two weeks, and has the Dodgers' third-best slugging rate over that stretch, behind two guys who are 100 and 200 points shorter to go yard today. There aren't a ton of good HR looks late today, but the righty vs. lefty of Keller vs. Freeman at +400 or better is making the card. 

Randal Grichuk continues to crush left-handed pitching and finds himself in another strong spot tonight. Since joining the White Sox, the veteran outfielder has been a key contributor, posting a .407 batting average, .889 slugging percentage, and 1.356 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws. He has also generated plenty of quality contact, highlighted by a 40.9% hard-hit rate. Grichuk owns the second-highest rating in this matchup, marking his 33rd elite home rating. With a strong history of producing hits and doubles in these spots, the +117 price on over 1.5 total bases offers solid value.