What does it feel like to hit a home run prop? I've lost that loving feeling during this cold snap.
But the sun's out, home runs are on the rise, and it's a great time to back the bats and MLB player props.
I'm targeting Max Scherzer and his fly-ball ways with two different Phillies batters, while the Rockies might have the best HR matchup on the board vs. a lefty who has given up a dozen dingers over his last four games.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, June 10.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Bryce Harper |
+402 |
 Ezequiel Tovar |
+470 |
| Brandon Marsh |
+585 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +13436 |
Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+402)
Max Scherzer is coming off the IL today and should be good for his usual 80-pitch workload. That's great news for the Phillies' bats, as the veteran right-hander has already allowed seven home runs in just under 20 innings of work this season.
The roof should be open, and the fly balls should be plentiful for the visitors.
It's a small sample, but Scherzer ranks 21st-worst among MLB starters in HR/FB rate, which pairs poorly with his seventh-worst groundball rate at 27.7%. A lot of Philadelphia bats are popping in the projections.
There are several Phillies hitters who have seen Scherzer more than 20 times, but at the current prices, Bryce Harper at +402 stands out as one of the best +EV home run plays, per the projections powered by THE BAT.
Left-handed hitters are crushing Scherzer this year, and Harper has taken him deep three times in 24 at-bats, which isn't an insignificant head-to-head sample. Alec Bohm at +700 or better is also showing value in the projections.
I have the fair price on the Harper home run closer to +300. For reference, Kyle Schwarber is sitting at +191.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SN1, NBCSP
Home run pick: Ezekiel Tovar (+470)
There is no better home run matchup to target today than the Rockies against Chicago's Shota Imanaga. The Cubs' starter has allowed 12 home runs over his last four starts, owns the worst BlastContact% of any starter on the slate over the last 30 days, and over that same stretch ranks second-worst in HR/FB rate.
It's 90 degrees in Colorado, and the wind is blowing toward the right-field wall.
Ezequiel Tovar went deep last night at a similar price in a tougher matchup. He has three homers over the last 14 days, ranks second on the team in ISO over the last two weeks, and is getting the ball in the air at a healthy rate. The fair price should be closer to +320.
Hunter Goodman is priced well below +200 to go deep, but Tovar projects as the next-most likely Rockie to leave the yard despite carrying the fifth-longest odds on the board.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Marquee Sports Network
Home run pick: Brandon Marsh (+585)
Let's add another left-handed bat against Scherzer in his first start off the IL.
There aren't many pitchers in baseball who allow as many fly balls as the veteran right-hander while also carrying one of the highest HR/FB rates in the league this season.
Brandon Marsh is just two games removed from homering in three straight contests. Over the last two weeks, he leads the Phillies in ISO, slugging percentage, HR/FB rate, and wOBA.
His low 16% groundball rate also pairs perfectly against a fly-ball pitcher like Scherzer.
Almost every visiting bat is projecting as +EV to go deep today, and the Phillies team total Over 1.5 home runs at plus money is another strong way to attack this matchup.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SN1, NBCSP
- HR picks: 13-108, -38.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Bryce Harper |
Bet Now +13436 |
| Ezekiel Tovar |
|
| Brandon Marsh |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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