The MLB Postseason is finally upon us as the Milwaukee Brewers host the New York Mets at American Family Field in Game 1 of this NL Wild Card Series. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a -145 favorite, while the total sits at seven.
My Mets vs. Brewers prediction is bullish on the home favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, October 1.
Mets vs Brewers prediction
Who will win Mets vs Brewers Game 1?
I am optimistic about the Milwaukee Brewers taking care of business in front of their home fans to kick off the NL Wild Card Series. The pitching matchup — in both the rotation and bullpen — against the New York Mets is in their favor, while both lineups essentially cancel each other out.
My Mets vs Brewers best bet
Brewers -1.5 (+158 at Caesars)
My analysis
Mets right-hander Luis Severino takes the mound in Game 1, and I am fading him hard. With New York forced to go with Tylor Megill on Monday to clinch the postseason, Severino is tasked with going against one of the best — and most underrated — lineups in baseball.
Through 31 starts this season, the right-hander owns a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Those aren’t the worst numbers in the league, but his biggest drawback is he allows a lot of contact and sports a .244 xBA.
That is going to be problematic against a Brewers team that ranks in the Top 8 of the league in hits per game, batting average, and OBP — there is constant traffic on the basepaths. Additionally, this current Brewers lineup boasts a .333 AVG, .578 SLG, and .406 wOBA through 48 combined career plate appearances against Severino.
Meanwhile, right-hander Freddy Peralta gets the ball for Milwaukee.
Peralta outranks Severino in ERA, WHIP, xBA, and strikeout rate. That isn’t the only pitching advantage in this matchup for the Crew, considering their bullpen paces New York’s in both ERA and FIP. No NL bullpen boasted a better ERA than Milwaukee, either. So if the Brewers can bridge that gap, they'll be laughing.
Mets vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers -1.5
Luis Severino Under 4.5 strikeouts
Willy Adames Over 0.5 hits
We are also going to fade Severino in the prop market as the right-hander ranks in the 22nd percentile in whiff rate and 34th in strikeout rate.
To correlate with Severino's struggles, we'll need the Brewers to string together some hits. Enter Willy Adames, who boasts a .364 BA through 13 career plate appearances against Severino.
Adames has also recorded nine hits over his past seven games, posting a .333 average over that stretch.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Brewers odds
Mets vs Brewers live odds
Mets vs Brewers opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +125 | Milwaukee -150
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-190) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 705 (-115)
Mets vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened between -141 and -150 favorite and is now as high as -163.
- The total opened at 7.5 and remains at that number at the time of writing.
- The juice to the Under shocks me a bit, considering that both lineups rank in the Top 10 in pretty much every category across the board, which is why I am staying away from this market.
Mets vs Brewers trend
Milwaukee has won five of its past seven games, with four of those five wins coming by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Brewers.
Mets vs Brewers Game 1 info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 5:32 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (11-9, 3.68 ERA) |
Mets vs Brewers latest injuries
Mets vs Brewers weather
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