Mets vs Astros Picks and Predictions: Fading Urquidy Early

Jose Urquidy has struggled heavily to start the season, and some of the peripherals suggest it could be getting even worse. We like a Mets team that mashes righties to rough him up before the Astros' elite bullpen gets involved with our MLB betting picks.

Last Updated: Jun 21, 2022 3:29 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jose Urquidy Huston Astros MLB
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The Mets and Astros have been two of the best teams in the MLB to begin the 2022 season as an interleague series between the two gets underway on Tuesday.

The Mets (45-24) have the second-best record in the MLB and have the most wins of any National League squad. The Astros (41-25) are coming off a day of rest after a day off on Monday. They have the second-best record in the American League and fourth-best record overall.

The Mets send Trevor Williams to the mound, while the Astros nominate the struggling Jose Urquidy.

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the New York Mets and the Houston Astros on Tuesday, June 21.

Mets vs Astros odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Astros opened -129. There hasn’t been much line movement, as they now sit between -125 and -134 depending on the book. The total has been set at 9 across all books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Astros predictions

Picks made on 6/21/2022 at 8:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Astros game info

Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Date: Tuesday, June 21, 2022
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, AT&T SportsNet

Mets vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Trevor Wiliams (1-3, 3.53 ERA): Williams has made five starts this season and 12 appearances overall. He’s been effective, and his peripherals aren’t bad at all. His 3.21 xERA, 3.49 FIP, and 3.67 xFIP are all encouraging, while his 4.6%-barrel rate is a good indication that he’s avoiding hard contact. It’d be a surprise if he threw 90 pitches in this contest, as this is his first start since June 5. He reenters the rotation in replace of the injured Tylor Megill. The most pitches he’s thrown in a start is 90, but usually he’s been in the 50s or 60s as more of a glorified opener. 

Jose Urquidy (5-3, 4.99 ERA): It hasn’t been a great year for Urquidy, despite the 5-3 record. His xERA is 6.16, a concerning number and well above his actual ERA. That’s a call for regression on his numbers that already are not the greatest. His 4.82 FIP and 4.47 xFIP are concerning but worst of all is his 9.4% barrel rate. That’s close to the bottom of the league among qualified starters. He’s striking out only 6.9 batters per nine innings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Jeff McNeil 3B (Questionable), J.D. Davis 3B (Questionable), Travis Jankowski RF (Out), James McCann C (Out), Seth Lugo RP (Out), Colin Holderman RP (Out), Sean Reid-Foley RP (Out), John Curtiss RP (Out), Trevor May RP (Out).
Astros: Yordan Avarez DH (Questionable), Aledmys Diaz SS (Questionable), Taylor Jones 1B (Out),  Jeremy Pena SS (Out),  Jake Myers CF (Out), Hector Neris RP (Out), Blake Taylor RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 23-8 in their last 31 Game 1s of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Astros

Mets vs Astros picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Mets have been hot, winning seven of their last 10 games. The Braves (8-2 in their last 10 games) are attempting to make a push in the NL East, but New York still has a 5.5-game lead in the division. One concern is the health of infielder Jeff McNeil, who left Monday’s game with tightness in his right hamstring. He was sent for an MRI and is considered day-to-day, although it’d be a surprise to see him suit up on Tuesday.

The Astros are 5-5 over their last 10 games and recently took two out of three from the Chicago White Sox.

The Astros have had the slightly hotter bats in recent form. In the last 10 days, Houston ranks 7th in OPS, 7th in wOBA, and 5th in wRC+. Over that span, the Mets rank 13th in OPS, 12th in wOBA, and 9th in wRC+. A loss of McNeil would hamper the expected output based on those numbers. 

In the starting pitching department, we give an edge to the Mets. Urquidy has one of the most concerning profiles of any starter in the league, highlighted by a gruesome 6.16 xERA and 9.4% barrel rate. The Mets have mashed against righties (3rd in OPS, 3rd in wOBA, 2nd in wRC+) and have a great matchup on Tuesday.

For the Mets, Williams has been effective in his role as spot-starter and long-reliever. The only issue is that he likely won’t pitch too deep into the game, but the Mets have a solid bullpen (3.64 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). 

This is normally a spot where I’d look to target the Astros, who are feeling fresh after a day off Monday and are facing a dinged-up Mets team. The numbers make me look in the other direction, however, as Urquidy’s peripherals are highly concerning. I can’t back a pitcher with those numbers unless I’m given a darn good reason, and I don’t see that reasoning here. 

Prediction: Mets moneyline (+117 at WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

We already voiced our concern with Urquidy, so we won’t dive too deep into his terrible profile. He was an effective pitcher a year ago (3.62 ERA across 20 starts) so perhaps he will regain his form. Until I see proof otherwise, I have to assume that opposing lineups will batter him around. 

Urquidy doesn’t strike many batters out (17% K-rate) and allows a ton of hard contact (9.4% barrel rate). He’s facing a capable Mets lineup that has mashed right-handed pitching, ranking 3rd in wOBA and 2nd in wRC+. 

One concern is that the Astros have been playing to the Under all year, going just 21-44-1 to the Over. Another is that the Astros will likely go to the bullpen early if Urquidy gets knocked around early. The Astros have the best bullpen ERA (2.59) in the league and should be well-rested after a day off Monday.

Trevor Williams is a quality starting pitcher who ranks in the top third of the league in most of his peripherals. The Astros bats have been hot, but they haven’t been other-worldly and are dealing with some injuries (mainly, slugger Yordan Alvarez missed Sunday’s contest).

We lean to the Under.

Prediction: Under 9 (-104 at FanDuel)

Best bet

The main takeaway from this handicap is that I want to fade Jose Urquidy in some fashion. His 6.16 xERA and 9.4% barrel rate are very concerning and he’s facing a capable Mets lineup.

The Mets’ team total for the first five innings can be had at 2.5 with the Over at +135 odds. Given Urquidy’s profile, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets plate a few runs early and Houston turns to its elite bullpen.

Taking the first five innings mostly eliminates the bullpen from the handicap and is my favorite way of fading Urquidy in this matchup.

Pick: New York Mets first five innings team total Over 2.5 (+135 at DraftKings)

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