Marlins vs Rays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Arraez Kickstarts Miami in Citrus Series

It was smooth sailing for the Tampa Bay Rays (62-42) in Game 1 of a two-game interleague series against the Miami Marlins (54-48) Tuesday night.

The Rays took the first-leg of the Citrus Series 4-1 to help get themselves back on the horse after dropping seven of their previous eight.

With both teams vying for playoff position — Tampa Bay is 1.5 games back in the AL East and Miami is one game back in the NL Wild Card — Game 2 has a lot on the line and given the pitching matchup, it’s poised to be a more run-heavy clash than the opener.

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Marlins vs. Rays on Wednesday, July 26.

Marlins vs Rays odds

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Marlins vs Rays predictions

If the MLB season ended today, Luis Arraez would finish with the best batting average this century (.375) and the highest since Canadian Larry Walker hit .379 in 1999 with the Rockies.

Arraez currently leads all major leaguers in hits with 139, and despite getting blanked in Game 1 against the Rays, he’s managed at least two hits in 39 of 96 games this season. 

While taking on Zach Eflin in Game 2 — arguably the Tampa Bay Rays most consistent starting pitcher — won’t be a walk in the park for the Fightin’ Fish, it’s an ideal matchup for Arraez.

Eflin has a deep bag of pitches in his arsenal, using as many as seven this season, but he primarily leans on his sinker (33.9% of the time), curveball (28.6%), and cutter (26.5%). Those are two of the pitches Arraez has hit best this season.

While he’s batting over .300 against every pitch other than the sweeper in 2023, the Miami Marlins second baseman hits the cutter (.448) and curveball (.424) exceptionally well.

Even if Eflin goes to his sinker, Arraez is hitting .344 against it and .365 against changeups (Eflin’s fourth-most used pitch at 5.5%). 

As for relief pitchers, Arraez hits their highest usage pitches well: Kevin Kelly’s sinker, Jason Adam’s changeup, Colin Poche's fastball (.373), and closer Pete Fairbank's slider (.422).

My best bet: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits (+155)

Marlins vs Rays same-game parlay

Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits (+155)

Both teams to score 3+ runs (+120)

Over 7.5 (-110)

+425 at bet365

With both teams starting the season hot, the Citrus Series is about bouncing back from slides. The Rays are 4-7 since the All-Star break with the Marlins just 1-9. 

Even during a nauseating July for both franchises, Miami has scored at least three runs six times in those 10 games and Tampa has done so in nine of 11.

With Eflin having a tough matchup against Arraez, he can be the catalyst for an offensive explosion, and manager Skip Schumaker certainly agrees.

“He’s been our catalyst the whole year,” Schumaker said after Arraez’s walk-off RBI in Sunday’s 3-2 win over the Rockies. “You know, running the bases the right way. Working the right way. (He’s) just one of the leaders, if not the leader, in the clubhouse, and it’s just really great to see him get his first walk-off.”

As for the Rays, they’re in position to do some major damage to Sandy Alcantara’s ERA. The former All-Star has been in a slump all year and has given up at least three earned runs in 12 of his 20 starts this season.

Tampa Bay is currently fourth in the league in home runs with 150 on the season, and has multiple bats in the rotation that hit at least .300 against two of Alcantara’s four pitches (sinker, changeup, fastball, slider).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Marlins vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

After a crisp victory from start to finish where the Rays were between -197 and -222 home favorites in Game 1, Tampa is in position to once again cash the moneyline in Game 2.

This afternoon’s moneyline opened with Tampa being anywhere between -140 and -175 and has only shifted in their favor to between -165 and -188, depending on the book.

With neither team lighting up the win column since returning from the All-Star break, the Rays have managed far better than the Marlins in that time, and Game 1 of the Citrus Series proved Tampa’s in a much steadier position. 

The total opened at between 6.5 and 7.5 at most books and has settled in at 7.5 just about everywhere. 

Trend to know

The Rays have cashed the moneyline in 37 of their last 55 games at home (+9.00 units / 9% ROI)/ Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Rays

Marlins vs Rays game info

Starting pitchers

Sandy Alcantara (3-9, 4.70 ERA): Having not won a game in his last four starts — with his last win coming June 27 against the Red Sox — the 27-year-old Alcantara has given up six home runs in that span. After posting a 14-9 record with a 2.28 ERA during a stellar 2022 season, Alcantara hasn’t found the same magic this year that’s made him a two-time All-Star in the past. He’s having a career-worst season with his highest ERA and lowest winning percentage and it’ll be hard to turn it around against a Rays team that’s got eight of nine bats in the lineup with at least 10 home runs this season.

Zach Eflin (11-5, 3.37 ERA): After signing a three-year, $40 million contract with the Rays this offseason, the 29-year-old Eflin is rewarding his new team with the best season of his career. In his seven seasons with the Phillies, Eflin never posted an ERA under 3.97 and he’s already tied his season best in wins with 11. After struggling in an 8-4 loss to the Royals on July 16, Eflin bounced back in a big way in his last start, pitching seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over the Orioles. While he has a tough matchup with Arraez, who doesn’t?

Latest injuries

Weather

Pages related to this topic