Marlins vs Nationals Picks and Predictions: Miami Brings Out the Brooms in D.C.

Don't worry too much about Trevor Rogers' rough numbers to start the year as they're largely inflated by one awful outing. The Nationals, his opponent this afternoon, won't pose a threat. We're backing Jazz Chisholm and the Marlins in our betting picks.

Last Updated: Apr 28, 2022 9:08 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jazz Chisholm Jesus Sanchez Miami Marlins MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals wrap up a three-game set in the nation's capital on Thursday afternoon.

The Marlins took the first two games in this series and oddsmakers expect them to get the sweep with MLB betting lines opening with Miami as a -160 road favorite for this early NL East showdown.

Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Marlins vs. Nationals on April 28, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET.

Marlins vs Nationals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board on Wednesday night with the Marlins installed as -160 road favorites with an Over/Under of 8 and shaded towards the Over at -125. The line has stayed steady at most books while the Over/Under is still at 8 but has closer to even odds on both sides as of 9 a.m. ET.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Marlins vs Nationals predictions

Picks made on 4/28/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Marlins vs Nationals game info

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Date: Thursday, April 28, 2022
First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Florida, MASN 2

Marlins vs Nationals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Trevor Rogers (0-3, 6.93 ERA): The 24-year-old has struggled this season pitching to a 1.80 WHIP with a .305 OBA. That said, he is coming off his best performance of the year when he threw five innings of one-run ball against the Braves last Friday.

The southpaw was the runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year in 2021 when he went 7-8 with a 2.64 ERA and 157 strikeouts in 133 innings. 

Patrick Corbin LHP (0-3, 11.20 ERA): Corbin has been terrible this year posting a 2.56 WHIP and .385 OBA in 13 2-3 innings over four starts. He is coming off a nightmare outing against the Giants where he was shelled for seven runs before getting the hook midway through the second inning. 

The 32-year-old is coming off an awful season where he posted a career-worst 5.82 ERA while surrendering an NL-high 37 homers in 31 starts. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Marlins: Jose Devers SS (Out), Miguel Rojas SS (Probable).
Nationals: Carter Kieboom 3B (Out), Ehire Adrianza IF (Out), Sean Doolittle RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-2 in the Nationals' last 10 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Nationals

Marlins vs Nationals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Marlins beat the Nationals 2-1 yesterday thanks to another stellar start from Pablo Lopez. That improved Miami's record to 8-8 and gave the Marlins their fourth straight win. 

After being one of the worst hitting teams in the majors for years, the Marlins are actually a respectable 13th in the majors with an OPS of .700 this season. A big reason for that has been the play of young studs like Jazz Chisholm (slashing .286/.340/.673) and Jesus Sanchez (.290/.343/.532), who have invigorated the lineup.

Despite a few hard-hitting sluggers of their own, the Nats have been much worse at the dish, ranking 26th in the majors with a .604 OPS.

The Nats will send lefty Trevor Rogers to the hill today. The youngster has some ugly numbers this season but those are inflated by a horrific start against the Phillies two weeks ago when he surrendered seven runs in just 1 2-3 innings of work. 

Rogers put together an impressive rookie campaign last year with a 1.15 WHIP and .218 OBA in 25 starts and his 3.16 FIP and ERA+ of 158 indicated that it wasn't beginner's luck. 

On the other hand, Patrick Corbin hasn't just been awful over a small sample size, he has seen his play fall off a cliff ever since Washington won the World Series. Over the last two years, he has pitched to a 5.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP while surrendering a whopping 47 home runs in 237 1-3 innings. 

The Nats are just 4-14 in Corbin's last 18 starts and it's impossible to back him with his teammates not providing any run support. We'll lean towards the Marlins continuing their hot play with another win. 

Prediction: Marlins moneyline (-155 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

We mentioned Washington's recent record in Corbin's starts but despite some ugly outings from the Nationals lefty, the Under has also been very profitable going 7-1-1 in his last nine games. 

That says a lot about how bad their offense has been and it's been even more pathetic lately, with the Nats plating just 1.9 runs per game in their last eight contests. 

Meanwhile, Miami's offensive production has been wildly inconsistent. In four of their last eight games, they scored a total of 24 runs while mustering just three runs in the other four.

With the Under 8-2 in the Nats' last eight home games and six of the Marlins' previous eight road contests going below the total, we're leaning towards the Under today. 

Prediction: Under 8 (+100 at DraftKings)

Best bet

The Nationals are really slumping at the plate right to start the year. And although they tried tinkering with their lineup last night, it didn't result in any improvements. Washington outfielder Juan Soto is one of the most talented young hitters in the game — and is expected to anchor their offense for years — but he has gone just 6-for-33 (.182 BA) from the dish without a single RBI in his last 10 games.

Now they face a talented young arm in Rogers who looked terrific when he previously faced off against Washington last September, allowing one run and striking out 10 batters in 5 1-3 innings. 

The Marlins bullpen has also been very reliable this season, pitching to a 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .199 OBA. We'll keep fading the Nats batters until they show some signs of life. 

Pick: Nationals team total Under 3.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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