Red Sox vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Toronto Sends Boston Packing

The Toronto Blue Jays turn to big right-hander Alek Manoah in an attempt to win three of four against the visiting Boston Red Sox. While we like the Jays to emerge victorious, the Under 7.5 also seems poised to pay with pitching being the story of the day.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 28, 2022 • 10:49 ET • 4 min read
Alek Manoah Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays bats were shut down in last night’s loss to the Boston Red Sox but they’ll go for the series win when they hand the ball to big right-hander Alek Manoah for the finale this afternoon.

Manoah has been one of the better starters in baseball early on but the Red Sox counter with a surprising starter of their own in Garrett Whitlock. Can the Jays win the series, or will the BoSox earn the split?

Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays on April 28. 

Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Blue Jays opened this American League East matchup as -160 home favorites but it has been the Red Sox who have seen the early money, moving the Jays’ line down to -145. The total hit the board at 8.0 but was quickly bet down to 7.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions

Picks made on 4/28/2022 at 10:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Center, Toronto, ON
Date: Thursday, April 28, 2022
First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
TV: NESN, Sportsnet

Red Sox vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Garrett Whitlock (1-0, 0.66 ERA): Whitlock is the Red Sox’s long reliever/spot starter and he has been outstanding in that role so far. He's making his second straight start and hasn’t allowed a run in his last 11 1-3 innings of work, surrendering just three hits in the process.

Alek Manoah (3-0, 2.00 ERA): Manoah has been one of the best and most consistent starters in the big leagues so far. The right-hander has pitched six innings in all three of his starts, never allowing more than two earned runs while striking out at least five.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Red Sox: No key injuries to report.
Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez OF (Out), Danny Jansen C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Blue Jays are 8-0 in Alek Manoah's last eight starts as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays

Red Sox vs Blue Jays picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Toronto Blue Jays look like a very good baseball team. Despite the offense not taking off like we expected while having to deal with some key injuries, they have done the little things to win baseball games. 

As a result, the Jays have a 12-7 record despite a difficult schedule. But the thin and somewhat struggling lineup cost them last night against the Boston Red Sox. A solid start from Ross Stripling wasn't enough as the offense was only able to generate one run while the bullpen surrendered six in the 7-1 loss.

But one thing that has generally been working for the Jays has been the starting pitching, and they’ll expect that to continue when they hand the ball to Alek Manoah as they go for the series win this afternoon. 

Manoah has been one of the most reliable arms in baseball early on this season. He's completed at least six innings in all three of his starts while pitching to an expected ERA of 2.50 and limiting opponents to a .217 expected batting average.

And while the Red Sox had a late offensive outburst last night, that has not been the trend early on. Boston ranks 23th in scoring, 20th in batting average, and 23rd in OPS.

While they counter Manoah with an impressive young right-hander of their own in Garrett Whitlock, the Jays have had the more consistent of the two offenses and we’ll give them the edge when it comes to the starters. Take the home team on this getaway day.

Prediction: Blue Jays moneyline (-145 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

While the moneyline could be a bit of a toss-up considering the value you get on either side, the total looks like the more solid bet of the two. The early money jumped on the Under and we have to agree.

We’ve already talked about how good Manoah has been and two of those starts came against the Yankees and Astros. On top of that, in two starts against the Red Sox last season, he allowed three earned runs on eight hits over 11 innings.

But we’ve also got to talk about Whitlock because it looks like the Red Sox might have found something special in the right-hander. As noted, he’s got an impressive scoreless streak going thanks to his arsenal that includes a biting sinker and a changeup that falls off the table. As a result, he owns a 1.43 expected ERA and opponents have a .174 expected batting average against him.

That’s not a great thing for a Blue Jays team that is still hitting just .179 with runners in scoring position this season. That ranks third-worst in the MLB. 

Mix in two surprisingly solid bullpens (the Jays get a pass for last night as they used their “B” relievers) and this one is trending towards the Under.

Prediction: Under 7.5 (-110 at Draftkings)

Best bet

We’ve already stated we like the Blue Jays and the Under this afternoon, primarily because of the starting pitching. So, let’s focus on that and take the five-inning total Under 4. 

Toronto is a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to first-five scoring, ranking 14th in that category. It has plated just four runs in the first five as a team so far this series. While Boston ranks 25th in first-five scoring at just 1.68 per contest.

Look for pitching to be the story early today.

Pick: First Five Under 4 (-120 at Draftkings)

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