Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Detmers Earns His Wings in Anaheim

In today's MLB prop picks, we're keying in on a pair of young starting pitchers and banking on them to go against recent trends. Chief among them, we like Los Angeles Angels lefty Reid Detmers to go Over his strikeout total of 4.5 against the Guardians.

Jason Wilson - Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Jason Wilson • Publishing Editor
Apr 28, 2022 • 12:31 ET • 3 min read

We've got a bunch of early MLB games on Thursday's get-away slate, so we're trying to spread the love from afternoon to evening in our daily prop picks.

We're looking at a former MVP candidate to get rolling against a lefty prone to giving up hits while also bucking against recent strikeout trends for a pair of young pitchers. 

Here are our three favorite MLB player prop picks for Thursday, April 28.

MLB props for April 28

Picks made on 4/28/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best MLB prop bets

Bregman of the hour

Alex Bregman gets a cushy matchup against Martin Perez, a soft-tossing lefty who doesn't miss a ton of bats, and he can be found at plus money to go over 1.5 total bases. Sign me up.

Bregman, like much of Houston's lineup, is off to a pedestrian start at the plate. He's hitting .267 with a .467 slugging percentage, three home runs, and three doubles in 73 plate appearances. He only has one hit in the series, so he might feel like an obvious fade, especially with how poorly he's fared against left-handers this year.

For his career, Bregman has absolutely owned left-handed pitching with a .315/.402/.567 slash line across 851 plate appearances. Whether by choice or by chance, Perez pitches to contact, and the Astros infielder simply doesn't whiff on the whole. Expect Bregman to put bat on ball and get the job done.

If Houston chases Perez, the Rangers bullpen doesn't inspire much confidence, either. They have a combined 4.10 ERA and the fourth-highest HR/9 among MLB relief corps to open the year.

Bregman hasn't fully come around yet this season, but he won't get a matchup as good as this too often. The infielder is also typically the third batter in the lineup, so he should get enough chances to pull this one over the finish line.

Pick: Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases (+110)

Kyle Wright and the wrongs

Braves right-hander Kyle Wright has jumped out of the gates red-hot, finally looking like he's living up to the potential Atlanta saw in him when it selected him fifth overall in 2017. And he's torched his last couple of opponents, striking out 11 Marlins on April 22 and nine Padres on April 15.

A couple of things are working against Wright tonight. First, the Chicago Cubs — for all their obvious deficiencies as a team and organization — do not swing and miss. Only four teams strike out less frequently than the Cubs as a unit. Second, Wright has largely gotten by on vastly improved command of his pitches and a slight uptick in fastball velocity from his limited action in 2021 (though more in line with his career norms).

Also, his early strikeout success is way above his usual numbers, whether in the majors or minors. He topped out at just over a strikeout per inning in Triple-A and has a career mark in MLB just under that number. He's punching out nearly 40% of his opponents so far and his stuff isn't markedly any different than it was. This screams unsustainable.

Wright's reined in the walks and hasn't allowed a home run — which would both be outstanding developments for the Braves' pitching staff going forward if they're the new normal  as he's been unable to translate his minor-league success to big-league results consistently. Still, even if Wright has turned over a new leaf, the Under on his total strikeouts prop is the right play today.

Now, most books have the Under juiced as high as -160, but it was still available at FanDuel for -118 on Thursday morning. 

Pick: Kyle Wright Under 6.5 strikeouts (-118)

Detmers detonates

Reid Detmers' MLB career has gotten off to something of a rocky start. In 33 innings dating back to last year, he owns a 7.09 ERA and 1.61 WHIP with 31 strikeouts and 15 walks. Not great.

The propensity to issue free passes was more of an issue in his five outings a year ago than it has been to start 2022. And while he hasn't brought his minor-league strikeout numbers to the show just yet, it's only a matter of time for the young lefty.

Now, the Guardians don't strike out all that often — 22.2% of the time — but they've struggled more against lefties. As a team, Cleveland is hitting just .201 against southpaws and has struck out 51 times in 208 plate appearances. 

Detmers — armed with a four-pitch arsenal that includes a shit-inducing curveball — fanned nearly 16 batters per nine innings in the minors a year ago. With pitchers slow to get stretched out so far, we're still seeing some low strikeout prop totals worth taking a flier on, and this is one of them.

Pick: Reid Detmers Over 4.5 strikeouts (-110 at FanDuel)

MLB parlay

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