Mariners vs Rangers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Castillo's Risk Bigger in Texas

Both of these teams come in on equal footing and have similar forms. The Rangers have won three of five games, and the Mariners have done the same. Both teams are also coming off a day of travel and rest. Texas is fresh off defeat against a surging Detroit Tigers team. Seattle, they were able to scrap to a win against the New York Yankees last time out.

What’s the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers on Friday, June 2.

Mariners vs Rangers odds

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Mariners vs Rangers predictions

The Texas Rangers are an exceptionally good-hitting team. Don’t take my word for it, though. Look at the numbers — here’s what they say:

• Third in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
• First in runs scored with runners in scoring position. 
• Fifth in hard-hit rate.
• Second in the wOBA rate.

As you can see, the numbers bear out what I’m saying as a very much factual statement. It’s the crux of my handicap today. The best way to capture this value is to fade the length opposing right-hander Luis Castillo goes in the game. I’m grabbing under 17.5 outs recorded as my best bet. 

Before we get into the matchup, let’s look at the road splits. Castillo has had the fortune of having most of the starts at home, so the sample is small, but still, the numbers tell a story. In two of his three road starts, he’s gone Under this number. The one game he went Over came against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. That happens to be a team with a high degree of familiarity, and one that swings at virtually everything — something that won’t be the case today. Also, we’ve seen a slight reduction in pitches in the road/home splits, with an average of 93 on the road and 98 at home. From a situational aspect, before we even look deep into the game, these two things work heavily in our favor.

Now, what does the matchup say? In a word, pressure. The Rangers hitters should be able to apply it, at least eventually. 

Castillo faced the Rangers just a few weeks ago in a game where he allowed eight hits and three earned runs in five innings. I’m not expecting much to change. I’m certainly not expecting him to be able to get through six innings. Why? Because in that matchup, he threw close to a season-high 98 pitches. That feels repeatable. It was a product of the Rangers' patience at the plate. They swing at a below-average rate, and Castillo is predicated on getting chases, as he’s ranked in the Top 20% of baseball throughout most of his career. Also, that fifth in baseball in hard-hit rate feels pretty important here — Castillo has struggled in that regard.

He ranks in the Bottom 10% of baseball in hard-hit rate, Bottom 20% of average exit velocity, and Bottom 25% of barrel rate. Like most heavy fastball pitchers, when he gives up contact, it’s generally hard contact. The Rangers are good at providing that hard contact, and I expect them to do it again. We have evidence outside of the Rangers in one of Castillo's previous starts too. He went five innings two starts ago on the road against the Boston Red Sox. While their hard-contact numbers aren’t awe-inspiring, Boston is fifth in wOBA and has plenty of power in its lineup based on historical data from seasons past.

We see this much closer to a coin flip than oddsmakers do. There are just some things that aren’t changing. Castillo isn’t going to stop relying on batters to chase out of the zone, and the Rangers shouldn’t suddenly start chasing pitches when they haven’t all season — even against Castillo. That combination should be enough for him to go Under this number for a second straight against the Rangers and a third straight time on the road. 

My best bet: Luis Castillo Under 17.5 outs (+150)

Mariners vs Rangers moneyline analysis

I lean towards the Rangers, given my best bet, but there’s not the same value in this market. I priced it at +110, and I’m only seeing even money. Given the market’s preference for backing the popular name on the mound, it may be worth seeing if that number becomes available, but I doubt it.

I just spent time pointing out warts in Castillo’s game, but make no mistake about it, he’s still an outstanding pitcher, and he has the edge in this matchup. The difference in quality between these two pitchers is simple to define and can be illustrated in two stats: Castillo has an xBA average of .227, and Jon Gray has one of .268. Castillo has an xWOBA of .298, and Gray has one of .338. 

Mariners vs Rangers Over/Under analysis

I see some value in the Over 8 here and will place a unit on it. I found it for -110, which aligns directly with my original best bet handicap. Both teams should be able to apply pressure on the opposing pitcher. I’ve already told you the reasons why for one, so let’s mention why the Mariners could have some success against Jon Gray.

The main reason is regression. Gray is not a below-3 ERA pitcher. He’s never finished a season with an ERA below that number in his career, and it’s hard to see it happening now at age 31. His expected ERA is at one of the higher numbers in his career at 4.7. Eventually, some of his luck could start to run out. It happening today against a team that has up to five players in the lineup hitting .300 or better against the four-seam fastball (his preferred pitch) isn’t a bad bet to make. 

Mariners vs Rangers game info

Starting pitchers

Luis Castillo (4-2, 2.69 ERA): It certainly feels like we know what Castillo is by now. He’s a tremendous pitcher capable of striking out most of your lineup on any given night, but he’s not quite elite. May was Castillo’s worst month, where he posted a 3.72 ERA. It was a mix of a few things. One was matchup based, but the other was simply some water finding its level. That said, he comes into this matchup off a very good performance against the Pittsburgh Pirates when he posted six scoreless frames. 

Jon Gray (5-1, 2.81 ERA): Gray is undoubtedly in the best stretch of his career, with highs in most metrics, including a WHIP of 1.11. It seems like that may come to a halt soon, though. There are concerns –namely an expected ERA of close to 5. You wonder when that regression will happen for Gray. He will come into this matchup off a sparkling performance when he went seven innings against the Baltimore Orioles and allowed just one earned run.

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In two of his three road starts, Luis Castillo has gone Under 17.5 outs. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Rangers

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