The ALCS continues Sunday with the Seattle Mariners looking to close out the Toronto Blue Jays.
I have compiled my two best Mariners vs. Blue Jays home run props for Sunday, October 19, featuring Julio Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Read on for my free MLB picks for tonight, and make sure to also check out our full Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions before first pitch!
Mariners home run pick
Julio Rodriguez (+450 at BetMGM)
Right-handed rookie Trey Yesavage takes the mound for Toronto, and this high-pressure situation may prove too much for the 22-year-old.
He’s coming off a rough Game 2 outing against Seattle, in which he surrendered five runs over just four innings.
Rodriguez only faced Yesavage twice in that game but produced a whopping .966 xBA and 3.774 xSLG across those two plate appearances.
Rodriguez has been swinging a hot bat recently, homering in two of the past four games. His underlying metrics from the regular season suggest he’s always a threat to go deep, as he ranked in the 80th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
Blue Jays home run pick
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+310 at BetMGM)
You can’t talk about strong form in this series without mentioning Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over the past three games, he boasts a .636 batting average, 1.455 slugging percentage, and 2.169 OPS.
Guerrero Jr. has homered in two of those three contests and enters Game 6 as the hottest hitter in the series. That success is likely to continue against right-hander Logan Gilbert, who gets the start for Seattle.
While Gilbert is no slouch, he has shown occasional susceptibility to hard contact. This season, he finished in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Guerrero Jr. also has a stellar track record against Gilbert. Through 19 plate appearances, he owns a .824 SLG, .796 xSLG, and two home runs off the righty.
How to watch Mariners vs Blue Jays and Game 6 info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Sunday, October 19, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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