It might have taken until the 25th hour last night, but Jacob Wilson delivered my longest home run prop of the year at +1140, and let's hope it's the start of a home-run heater. Let's cash some MLB player props.
Fading Dean Kremer has to be on the card, and Masataka Yoshida is the left-handed bat I want, while Aaron Nola has been serving up long balls all year and nobody has seen him more than Freddie Freeman.
Finally, how can we leave Jacob Wilson off the card after last night, and at a better price, today? Spoiler: We can't.
These are my favorite home run predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 22.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Masataka Yoshida |
+1000 |
 Freddie Freeman |
+406 |
 Jacob Wilson |
+1180 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +48476 |
Home run pick: Masataka Yoshida (+1000)
After backing Jacob Wilson at +1140, I'm like a vampire with a thirst for 10/1 home runs or better, and Dean Kremer at Fenway with the wind blowing out is my next target. I'm playing this down to +750 in the first game of a doubleheader, where Kremer could be asked to eat innings.
Kremer currently owns the worst HR/FB rate among qualified MLB starters and the third-worst HR/9. He's already surrendered nine home runs in just 26 innings, with left-handed hitters doing most of the damage.
Masataka Yoshida is one of only two Red Sox with an OPS north of 1.000 over the last 30 days and ranks near the top of the club in most offensive categories. He isn't known as a prolific home run hitter, but he's in the middle of a nice power surge with two homers and a .351 average over his last 10 games.
The matchup and the setting are there today to take a shot at a massive price. There is only one lefty arm in the Orioles pen today, as well.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, MASN
Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+406)
Citizens Bank Park still ranks as the No. 2 home run park on today's slate, according to Ballpark Pal, despite a slight wind blowing in.
That's great news for the Dodgers' bats against Aaron Nola, who has been one of the more home run-prone pitchers in baseball this season. He served up three homers in his last start on the 16th and has allowed multiple home runs in five of his last seven outings. It's a dinger upgrade across the Dodgers' lineup, and Nola doesn't discriminate, giving them up to both lefties and righties.
Only Tommy Edman owns a better OPS than Freddie Freeman over the last 30 days in the Dodgers' clubhouse, and Freeman has plenty of history against Nola with 76 career at-bats. Nola has gotten the better of him over the years with a .237 average and just two home runs allowed, but this version of the Phillies' right-hander is the most vulnerable Freeman has ever faced.
Almost the entire Dodgers lineup projects as +EV to go deep today, but Freeman at +370 or better is where I'm landing. It also helps that the Phillies have just one available lefty in the bullpen.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, SportsNet LA
Home run pick: Jacob Wilson (+1180)
How about some damn respect for Jacob Wilson, who has gone deep three times over his last four games and cashed a monster ticket last night at +1140. The Athletics' leadoff man has seen at least five plate appearances in each game during this heater and is riding a nine-game hitting streak, batting .421 with a .721 slugging percentage and six multi-hit performances.
The matchup is in his favor again today against Merrill Kelly, who has been one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball this season. Kelly owns the worst BlastContact% of any starter on today's slate and ranks among the bottom 50 in both HR/FB and HR/9. He has also been far more vulnerable at home, posting a 6.69 ERA compared to a 4.28 mark on the road. Since the start of 2024, his HR/9 is also 0.4 higher at home.
I'm riding the Wilson train until this price drops. I'd play this dinger down to +800 today.
- Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Diamondbacks.TV
- HR picks: 22-135, -14.23 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Masataka Yoshida |
Bet Now +48476 |
| Freddie Freeman |
|
| Jacob Wilson |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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